Good Luck, America!

Well, the Mid-Terms are almost upon us – or should I say almost upon you as I’m not an American and live several thousand miles away! But I have been paying attention (from a safe distance) so I’m aware how important they are. I’m not exactly sure about some of the hyperbole surrounding them – the most important elections for a generation and so on – but they’re definitely a great opportunity for the US to change direction as well as to put a much-needed check on the Trump Whitehouse. It’s easy to imagine just how emboldened that Trump would be if the Republicans managed to hold on to both Houses and I think that’s reason enough on its own to vote Democrat. The President is doing enough damage to the Republican Party, the US and the world without feeling he has a free pass.

If the predicted ‘Blue Wave’ arrives in anything more than a ripple it seems likely that the Republicans will lose Congress. The odds against them of taking the Senate too are probably very high. I think it would shock a great many people if that happened. But Congress in the hands of the Democrats would be enough for now – to halt Trump’s agenda and, much more importantly, start a whole host of investigations into Whitehouse activities and Trump himself. It would also mean that the Mueller investigation would then be safe to continue its work in a less dangerous environment. Where the existing and proposed investigations end up and who ends up in prison is anyone’s guess if the Russia Probe is anything to go by. The next two years are going to be politically very interesting for anyone with a fascination for the subject. It will be far less interesting – to say the least – for the present Whitehouse team in the long, long run-up to 2020. It’s anyone’s guess if the President’s whole team, or even his whole family, will make it that far.

I do have serious doubts that the President will be impeached. For one thing, say what you can about him, Donald Trump is a survivor. It’s possible that his Party will turn on him assuming the Democrats do as well as expected but, if recent history is anything to go by, that’s pretty unlikely. I also doubt, no matter what he finds, that the Mueller Probe will bring Trump down. I know that the President fears the results of the investigation but I have the feeling that, although evidence of collusion and conspiracy will be found, not enough dirt will stick to Trump himself. That’s not where, as far as I can see, the real danger to the President and his family rests. That’s in his home town – New York. The Southern District’s investigation into Trumps finances and especially regarding his so-called Charity will be the killer here. Tax evasion brought down Capone and, I think, it’ll do the same for the Trump family. The President himself might have to wait for 2020 to answer for things but I don’t think the rest of his family will need to wait that long.

One thing we can pretty much guarantee is that, no matter the result on Tuesday, Mueller will drop the next bomb not long after. No doubt it’ll be someone BIG. My personal guess is Jared Kushner or possibly Roger Stone. But watch out for a series of charges based on the evidence given by the existing ‘flippers’ suggesting that a number of Trumps friends and allies won’t be having a very merry Christmas this year. I think it’s really only a matter of time before the legal processes grind forward enough to really ruin the President’s day. I would like to think that, in combination, they’d disqualify him from running in 2020 but we’ll have to wait and see.

Lastly it’s not a done deal that the Democrats will take back Congress on Tuesday. I think it will be a dark day for America if they don’t but there are no sure things in politics. From early voting it looks like the numbers of people interested in making sure their voices are heard are quite possibly unprecedented but we’ve been here before when it was assumed that Hilary would win in 2016. The pundits are talking numbers of around an 11 to 50 Democrat majority in Congress after the Mid-Terms and I’d expect it to be somewhere at the bottom end of that range. My guess is a majority of 15. That will be enough at any rate.  I’m going to keep my fingers crossed for the big day and wish my American readers good luck for Tuesday. You are most certainly in my thoughts.