Welcome to the thoughts that wash up on the sandy beaches on my mind. Paddling is encouraged.. but watch out for the sharks.
About Me
- CyberKitten
- I have a burning need to know stuff and I love asking awkward questions.
Friday, October 30, 2020
Thursday, October 29, 2020
Just Finished Reading: The Death of Democracy – Hitler’s Rise to Power by Benjamin Carter Hett (FP: 2018) [235pp]
The German Weimar Republic came into existence following the end of the First World War. It was born during the crisis of Germany’s defeat and continued in crisis throughout much of its short 15 years of existence. As new as the Republic was the democracy that supported it was almost as young. Until the German nation needed to show the victorious Allies – and particularly the Americans – that they were really a Democracy too and should be treated like one (rather than a military supported Monarchy) – most of the poorer German people couldn’t exercise their vote and little that the constituent assembly in the Reichstag decided during the reign of the Kaiser rose above the level of advice. Power, since German unification in 1871, was solidly in the hands of the military, the Kaiser and Prussia. So democratic roots, where they existed at all, had yet to move much beyond the surface.
Into the chaos of a defeated nation the political parties of
early Weimar covered the whole gamut from far Left to far Right. But 1919 and
1920 were years of revolution and counter revolution – of attempted coups,
assassinations and threats of uprisings and invasions. Democratic politics
generally took second place to street fighting and the sound of gunfire. Disorder
and confusion was the order of the day and day after day. Slowly though things
began to normalise. Coalition governments – as the country had a system of
Proportional Representation – existed mostly around the Centre Left of the Social
and Christian Democrats. But these governments were generally weak and short
lived. The Communists – allied to the new Soviet Union – made up a significant
part of the Reichstag but would not co-operate with other Socialistic parties
which they held in contempt as ‘class enemies’. On the far Right a handful of
parties fought for votes amongst them the newly formed NSDAP – the Nazi Party.
At the time no one really took them seriously. Their vote was tiny and their
influence insignificant. They could draw crowds – that was certain, especially
after Adolf Hitler joined and subsequently led them – but crowds consistently
failed to morph into votes. So it continued….
As the 1920’s dragged on, and fights over Reparations
continued to define much of the political agenda, further crisis and turmoil
unsettled the country. As the centre parties continued to disagree and fail the
country the voters turned to alternatives on the Left and Right of the
spectrum. The Communists started to win more seats and more support as did the
reducing number of larger Right wing parties. It was here that the first of a
series of fatal mistakes were made by political forces on the Right and the
major Industrialist who supported them against the Communist threat. Sensing an
opportunity for advancement of his programme Hitler positioned himself and his
still fledgling party – although much larger by now – as the solution to the
Communists. Again initially dismissed some in government saw the Nazi’s as a
way to manipulate things in their favour until they could be disposed of. They
were to be used as a means to an end, nothing more. But Hitler had other ideas
and so the dance began. But when the music stopped it was the would-be manipulators
that failed to acquire the all-important chairs.
Important though it is and as vital as it is not to be
forgotten I do find myself rather uninterested in the ‘Rise of Hitler’
narrative. As a political and historical chronicle is has, with justification,
been done to death. However, I did find myself honestly riveted to this almost
blow by blow account of how first the political and economic position of
Germany between the wars provided fertile ground for the rise of the Nazi’s
and, more importantly I think, how self-serving politicians and frankly incompetent
power brokers not only allowed Hitler to gain the Chancellorship but actively
aided him on the patent misunderstanding that he could be controlled or
manipulated for their benefit. At no point did they think that they themselves
were the manipulated ones or that they were enabling or facilitating their own
dooms. Indeed many of those who died on or soon after the ‘Night of the Long
Knives’ were surprised and shocked that the Nazi’s could turn against them so
effectively. Despite every piece of evidence to the contrary they apparently
never saw it coming!
As with all good history books this reinforced the idea that
everything we might think of an inevitable is in fact highly contingent. There
were SO many ways Hitler’s rise might have failed. He was injured twice in the
war and could have been killed, several of his followers just feet away from
him during the ‘Beer Hall Putsch’ were shot and killed and any of those bullets
could have hit him, the judge at his subsequent trail could have deported him
(as an Austrian) but didn’t….. and so on. The failure of the Weimar Republic
was not inevitable – even after the Wall Street Crash. It was the action of
individuals, making often self-serving decisions, which put him in power and imperilled
the world in the years that followed. That, I think, is the most important
message we can take from the events and this excellent book that covers them.
Recommended.
Wednesday, October 28, 2020
Tuesday, October 27, 2020
Monday, October 26, 2020
Just Finished Reading: How Democracy Ends by David Runciman (FP: 2018) [224pp]
Thinking about the end of Democracy is almost as difficult as thinking about the end of Capitalism. Although Democracy has a long history, going way back to the ancient Greek city of Athens, in its recognisable modern form it’s only a few hundred years old or, if you take it as only valid under universal franchise, around 100 years old in most western nations. Clearly Democracy wasn’t the normal form of government for most of human history and there will, inevitably, be a time after Democracy just as there was a LONG time before it. But how exactly will Democracy end? That’s what this fascinating little book hopes to answer – or at least meaningfully speculate about.
The author essentially puts forward 4 scenarios where
Democracy fails in some fashion. The first is in a Coup. The author considers
the odds of any established democracy anywhere in the world falling to a coup
to be very low indeed. He even states that “No democracy has reverted to
military rule once GDP is greater than $8,000 per person”. I don’t know if
that’s true but it wouldn’t hugely surprise me. Coups can only be successful
when a population has little or no investment – in all its senses – in their
government or the structure of the state. It is difficult indeed even
conceiving of anywhere where democracy has set down roots that such a thing
could occur. The problem I can think of here is exactly how you define the
regimes across the world as democratic – Turkey? Egypt? Chile? – and exactly
how deeply the democratic impulse is. How easy is it, for example, to point to
a country and say “Well, they’re not really a democracy” or “Well, they haven’t
been a democracy LONG enough for it really to take hold”. As always it’s all
about where you draw the line. But generally speaking I’d say the author is
right. A modern coup in a democratic state is highly unlikely (and the results
are probably short lived before democracy comes back).
The second scenario is Catastrophe. When nasty substances
hit fans there can be little time or little incentive to vote on the response.
But, if history tells us anything is that people still vote in even the direst
times. After all we voted in BOTH World Wars, we’ve voted in global recessions
and global pandemics and I think it would take a LOT for elections to be
postponed or shelved for the length of any emergency. The only way that I think
something like that could happen would be after a truly MAJOR catastrophe –
like a nuclear war or large asteroid strike – in other words something that was
an existential threat. But even in those cases, as long as we survive as a
species or functioning society/civilisation, any suspension of the democratic
process would most probably be a temporary one. Again if people have any great
investment in a state they will inevitably want a say and an influence in how
that state is run and how it affects their lives. I doubt if a non-democratic
state could last long in these circumstances.
The third scenario is Technological Takeover. By this the
author doesn’t mean the advent of Terminator style machines eliminating the
electorate on mass but the subversion of electorates by the mega tech companies
like Facebook, Google and their cohorts. If people can be convinced to ‘express
themselves’ through Likes and re-tweets rather than actually voting for real
people who have actual real policies then democracy could be undermined to an
extent that people stop caring, stop bothering to vote or taking much interest
in politics outside their own particular micro-bubbles online. Flame wars and
Twitter storms might be an amusing way to pass time during a boring meeting but
democracy it isn’t. Until recently I would’ve said that this was a much more
likely outcome than the first two. But events, not just in the present US
election but across the world, have made me more confident that people just
won’t settle for a quick tweet or an Instagram post and feel like they’ve done
‘their part’ or even achieved anything. People are still willing and able to
put their phones down long enough to make some badly written signs and get out
there and protest. It’s even likely, I suggest, that technology can actually
strengthen and deepen democracies as we move beyond a simple candidate vote
every 4-5 years to secure local or national referendums on a whole host of
issues that can be tallied almost instantly – and publically – to test the
temperature of the larger electorate.
The last scenario is if Something Better comes along. Some,
like Nick Land, propose a kind of national corporation where ex-citizens become
little more than customers for products, services and anything else that is
presently provided for by government. We would, in effect, ‘vote’ by using our
choices and purchase power. Of course there is a real alternative to democracy
right now on the opposite side of the world – China. Could that be the future
just around the corner for the rest of us? Maybe. Pragmatic 21st
century Authoritarianism, like we are beginning to see in some unexpected
places, might be what enough people want without the burden of political
activity or conflict. Could we instead move towards as Epistocracy – a system
based on knowledge rather than citizenship? Or an Aristocracy – in the Greek
sense – a society run by ‘the best’ for the rest of us (how you choose ‘the
best’ is a whole other issue of course!). Certainly Liberal Democracy isn’t
necessarily part of the fabled ‘End of History’.
Sunday, October 25, 2020
Friday, October 23, 2020
Thursday, October 22, 2020
Just Finished Reading: How Democracies Die – What History Reveals About Our Future by Steven Levitsky & Daniel Ziblatt (FP: 2018) [231pp]
As usual I picked this book up at least a year or more ago (when it came out in paperback) and it has been languishing in a pile ever since. Now seemed a particularly apposite time to pick it up (along with the following 2 books) and read it.
Despite everything happening on both sides of ‘the pond’ I’m
not one of those believers who think that Democracy itself is under any existential
threat nor would I even go so far as to say that it is under crisis. This is
clear, I think, from the amount of engagement – both appropriate and even
inappropriate that’s happening presently with protest marches and much else
besides. I felt that Democracy was far more in danger from the seemingly inexorable
disengagement of a bored and uninterested electorate. You can say many things
about the present state of our Democracies in both the UK and US but you cannot
say that they are boring, uninteresting or that people are generally disengaged
– quite the opposite in fact!
This book was written as a reaction to the election of
Donald Trump that shocked and dismayed so many people on the ‘Left’ of US
politics. The authors – both professors at Harvard – wanted to understand how
such a thing could happen and what it meant for the future of American
democracy. Not only did they look for external examples of failed or failing
Democracies – Pinochet’s Chile and Erdogan’s Turkey – but, rather inevitably,
Italy in the 1920’s and Germany in the 1930’s. They also looked at the historic
examples of both France and Britain in the 1930’s who managed to fight off any
drift into authoritarian or totalitarian regimes there. But their main focus
was the growing erosion and subsequent failure of the American electoral system
to first allow the rise of someone like Trump – and as they point out there had
often been someone like Trump on the fringes of the Republican Party in
particular (with figures like Coughlin, Long, McCarthy and Wallace regularly
winning 30-40% support) – and then actively supporting them within the Party to
the necessary exclusion of moderates and the dismantling of any idea of a ‘broad
church’ approach. The prevention of previous authoritarian demagogues rising to
the top and getting their names on nomination tickets was deeply undemocratic
and generally took place during discussions between the Party grandees in smoke
filled rooms, in private, away from the Press and the electorate – the Party
Machine. As the 1960’s moved into the 1970’s this process became less and less
acceptable and less and less palatable to the public. Ironically, the authors
observed, an increase in democracy has actually put Democracy in peril.
The authors make it very clear that Trump is not an aberration
and is far from unprecedented. What is new is that the Republican Party in
general supported him as much as they did to get him elected. Trump could never
become President on his own as many Independent candidates have found out to
their (dollar) cost. The Party Machine got him elected so even if he leaves office
next January the ‘age of Trump’ style politicians – or even Presidents - may
not be over.
Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Monday, October 19, 2020
Just Finished Reading: The Road to Rome by Ben Kane (FP: 2011)
Alexandria, Egypt 48 BC. As the city burns and his long lost sister sails for Rome, Romulus and his friend Tarquinius can only look on and get ready to fight for their lives. Heavily outnumbered by local Egyptian forces they can only retreat to their waiting ships and hope that their commander – Gaius Julius Caesar – can save them. Meanwhile in Rome Romulus’s sister Fabiola has her own plans and her own path. Now free from slavery and lover of Brutus, a man on the rise in Rome, she is free at last to put her plan into effect. Using her position as brothel owner to gather information from the leading men of the Roman Republic she begins to determine who she can trust and who shares her desire to rid Rome of its greatest enemy – not a foreign King or paid infiltrator but someone at the very heart of the Republic itself. But her revenge is far from purely a way to protect Rome from a would-be tyrant. For Fabiola it’s personal – as personal as it can possibly get. For Fabiola is convinced that her enemy is the same man who raped her mother many years ago, the man who almost raped her, the man who was her father and the hero of the battlefield, conqueror of Gaul – Julius Caesar himself.
This was the 3rd book in the Lost Legion trilogy
which followed the lives of brother-sister pair Romulus and Fabiola and
Etruscan mystic Tarquinius and they make their way through the turbulent history
of the late Roman Republic. Rome is seen here warts and all with crime,
corruption, filthy streets, poverty and prostitution (to say nothing of slavery,
the pitiless ‘Games’ and the casual brutality of the times) rather than the
glory of Rome we’re mostly used to. The times and the place are fascinating it
themselves but, unfortunately, despite having quite a tale to tell I really
felt that this final instalment fell rather flat. Several problems (or
irritations) really jumped out at me and recurred throughout the book. Firstly
there was the main character’s motivations. We were introduced to them in the
first book and reminded of them in the second. I can kind of understand why we
were reminded of them again in the third book (after all I myself have, on occasion
read books out of sequence) but I felt that being reminded – either during
dialogue or internal monologue – more than 10 times (I kid you not) throughout
the book was a bit much to say the least. I know I’m ‘getting on’ in years but
even my memory isn’t that bad yet. Then there was the internal monologues of
the main protagonist in particular. Repetitive just didn’t cover it. There was
guilt over a friend’s death, anger over a friend’s lies, missing his sister
etc.. Over and over and over again. It was the classic mistake (in so many
books and films) of telling rather than showing. Readers are normally
intelligent enough to work out a characters motivations if given enough
evidence to work from. We don’t need constant rumination coming from someone’s
head. Then my biggest bug-burr: Cliff Hangers. To ‘drive the narrative forward’
and keep you turning those pages the author dropped in a cliff hanger (usually
a matter of life and death) every three or four (short) chapters. OK, it might
have driven the narrative along like an out of control freight train but it was
SO annoying I actually howled in protest more than once – fortunately this was
at home alone rather than back in my office. I quickly learnt that any moment
of drama would be addressed a few chapters later and the ‘dramatic pause’ would
be essentially meaningless. It didn’t exactly add very much to me overall
enjoyment.
It was a real shame that there were so many things that
irritated me with this book. The location and time frame – on the road to the
Ides of March – were dramatic enough. The author handled the locations well and
his battle sequences were very well handled. There would have been much more
interest, for me at least, to spend more time on the political side of things,
which where generally glossed over, rather than the private revenge of one
person. I haven’t been put off this author (yet) but I’m certainly in danger of
being if especially the repeated cliff hangers carry on in other books/series
(which if I’m honest I suspect will do).
We’ll see. Despite having its moments I can’t say I enjoyed this book
overly much. Borderline reasonable.
"The eccentricity of which the English are accused abroad is, in truth, the mainspring of our national progress. However absurd the form which occasionally it may assume, it is yet an element of character eminently productive, on the whole, of good. Without a high degree of originality, which is but another name for eccentricity - a departure from ordinary rule - no man ever accomplished anything great."
Mabel Sharman Crawford, Through Algeria, 1863.
Sunday, October 18, 2020
Saturday, October 17, 2020
For A Few Labels More….
Just a short note: I’ve recently added a few more Labels over on the Right. They are
President
PM
Although I’m certainly not intending reading biographies of
ALL of the US Presidents I have read and am planning on reading a few books
which mention them (or at least some of them) in reasonable depth so I thought
that they’d shortly need their own special place on the Blog. As I’ve mentioned
before, my main historical focus (book wise) is on UK and European matters but
the US can’t really be ignored. Plus the fact that it might help me actually
understand that rather strange place!
The other label is in recognition that I do intend to read
about a fair number – I doubt if I could read books on ALL of them in what
remains of my life – of our Prime Ministers. Presently I’m starting from a VERY
low base of one on Churchill’s youthful experiences long before he moved into
politics never mind became Prime Minister (twice). I presently have one more PM
related book in my Review pile and another in my Read Soon pile so – label time
it is! I’ve also discovered a series of short books (about 170 pages) on all of
the 20th century PMs so they’ll start appearing – in date order
naturally – from next year. So be prepared to see political biographies on
people you’ve never heard of….
Friday, October 16, 2020
Thursday, October 15, 2020
Just Finished Reading: Austerity – The Great Failure by Florian Schui (FP: 2014)
It’s pretty clear to me, and more so after the debacle of 2008, that most politicians as well as a fair few economists don’t understand how actual economies work. Delving a little more into the morass of economic thought I can see why. Few of their theories have more than a passing relationship with reality, history or human behaviour. So it should come as no great surprise that the response to the Crash of 2008 – caused we should remember by the banks and financial institutions that are supposedly at the cutting edge of economic efficiency and effectiveness – was Austerity. That same Austerity that was so effective after the Crash of 1929, that same Austerity that prolonged and deepened an already deep recession and helped create the Great Depression. I do wonder if we’d still be there without a World War to pull us out of it.
The logic of Austerity has long confused me. The problem, it
seems, is the lack of consumer spending, consumer ‘confidence’ and business
investment. I won’t even start of the stupidity of an entire economic system
based on people like me going out and buying a fridge. Anyway, in bad economic
times people quite naturally worry about their future so are much less likely
to spend money on ‘big ticket’ items and, instead, concentrate on the basics
(like food) and will put money aside (if they have any) to help them through if
things go South. So what do governments do? Cut back on spending wherever they
can and try to balance their budgets. One thing they usually do is play with
Interest Rates. But here’s the problem with that approach – if you increase
interest rates to encourage saving that it puts business off borrowing money so
they can’t invest as easily. If you decrease interest rates you might increase
borrowing/investment but people won’t save as much (if anything) so there will
be less money available to invest.
Of course businesses want to maintain their profits in a
recession – as much as they can – and the easiest way to reduce costs is to
sack people and then get the remainders’ to produce more for the same wage –
essentially exploiting your workforce with the threat of unemployment. But the
workers you made unemployed now can’t afford to buy your products (at least not
to the same level) so you need to cut back further. Governments will pay your
unemployed enough – generally – to get by on but in order to afford that they
need to raise taxes, cut back elsewhere or both. With less money in the economy
and more fear of losing jobs businesses cut back and we go down another level
until, eventually, we hit bottom and, generally, bump along it until something
happens to get things going again – like a world war. Austerity really doesn’t
work – although there are enough politicians and economists who will tell you
that it does or at least it should. They just don’t often use economic
reasoning to justify it. This is what this fascinating and thoughtful book is
all about – essentially debunking the (usually) non-economic arguments for the
Austerity policy of the day.
Starting with the ancient Greeks (naturally) the author made
an obvious statement that practically stopped me in my tracks. Their early
arguments for not pursuing excessive wealth or commodities – like the latest iSaddle
with the improved bevelled edges – came from a time of essentially zero
economic growth. Arguments from the dawn of Capitalism and the fabled
Protestant Work Ethic relied on simplicity and lack of ostentation in order not
to offend God by crude displays of wealth. Later arguments from the likes of
Hayek postulated that active engagement with the myth of the Free Market inevitably
leads to Totalitarianism based on his experiences in Austria between the world
wars. Later still the Club of Rome used environmental arguments about the
runaway growth of populations (Malthus has never been far from people’s minds
despite the fact that we continue to feed our growing populations in most places
most of the time) and resource depletion. Here, I freely admit, I have much
more sympathy with reducing the lust for growth that has driven the capitalist
west for the last few hundred years. But even here growth can be managed if
correctly without the wholesale slamming on of the breaks.
Although I certainly don’t agree with every argument the
author presents I think he does make a very valid argument overall against the
idea of Austerity as a credible answer to the present (or future) economic
crises. Time and again, both locally and globally, austerity when enacted has
both extended and deepened economic depressions and recessions. It’s time we
found another way. Definitely recommended for anyone arguing against the
austerity toolset.
Wednesday, October 14, 2020
Tuesday, October 13, 2020
Monday, October 12, 2020
Just Finished Reading: Drums Along the Khyber by Duncan MacNeil (FP: 1969)
Young James Ogilvie had little choice if he’d given it much thought. His Grandfather and now his Father had commanded the 114th Highlanders, the Queen’s own Royal Strathspeys and family tradition demanded he follow in their substantial footsteps. After graduating from Sandhurst Military Academy he began his expected long apprenticeship in the regiment learning its traditions and its way of doing things. But only months into his training as a fresh subaltern the call comes out from the North West Frontier that a rebel chief, Ahmed Khan, has arisen in Afghanistan and is becoming a potential risk to the Empire in India. The 114th are needed earlier than expected to crush any possible insurgency. So, in 1894, Ogilvie finds himself at the very edge of the Empire, falling in love with another officer’s wife, disturbed and a little disgusted with the treatment of Indian natives and facing the greatest challenge of his life to date – passage through the fabled Khyber Pass to fight on the plains of Afghanistan. Whatever happens it’s going to be quite a baptism of fire.
Sunday, October 11, 2020
Friday, October 09, 2020
Thursday, October 08, 2020
Just Finished Reading: The Secrets of Drearcliff Grange School by Kim Newman (FP: 2015)
She took her mother’s warning very seriously. How indeed could anyone even think of marriage to someone like her? She would just have to try harder, try to be more normal. But it was so hard. She tried carrying stones in her pockets and thinking heavy thoughts but still, if she lost control for a moment….. The final straw was that morning, that embarrassing morning when her mother came to wake her. It wasn’t her fault really. After all there’s little you can do when you’re fast asleep. But it was the look, a mixed look of horror and disappointment, which said it all. But there’s not much you can say to someone when you’re floating inches from your bedroom ceiling. At her wits end there was only one thing that her mother could realistically do. She recognised that now but the new boarding school, miles from anywhere and filled with the strangest girls, was quite a shock to the system. To be dropped in, mid-term, in the third year was enough to force her feet to remain solidly on the ground. But her new friends and roommates helped. One was a beautiful and exotic Indian princess, another was the daughter of stage magicians (presently incarcerated) and the third was a member of the British aristocracy. Settling in was taking a while. New school, new rules. New names for things, people to avoid, and lots to learn. But there were also the oddities and the downright strangeness of the place. There were rumours of ghosts and rules about going near the cliff edge or into the woods. But when one of her new friends vanished in mysterious circumstances and few seemed to be disturbed by the event there was only one thing to do – to band together with her roommates and use their combined skills to solve the mystery and save her friend from what would no doubt be a very sticky end.