I'm honestly surprised the Russians are faring this poorly. In this day of asymmetrical warfare, it wouldn't be a surprise if an occupation turned into a quagmire, but the initial invasion? It's like 1905 all over again..
I think the combination of the Ukrainian forces doing so well and the Russian forces doing SO badly has surprised just about everyone. the 'myth' of Russian superiority has gone forever I think. It seems to be a combination of poor planning, false expectations of their reception - anti-tank rockets rather than flowers! - poorly maintained equipment, poor or absent leadership, a mysterious lack of air support, poor morale and probably other things that slipped my mind.
Now that the invasion is going to last months (if not longer) rather than days, the Russians don't have a chance of coming out of this in one piece. This totally botched invasion (to say nothing of future war crimes indictments) may just have destroyed Russia as we know it.
"As we know it" being the important phrase....the Afghan war and Chernobyl helped drive the Soviet Union into the graveyard of history (joining its millions of victims!), but "Russia" endures. I still think Putin is cunning enough to land on his feet, but some kind of political shakeup in Moscow would no longer surprise me. Hopefully it wouldn't be as potentially volatile as the USSR-Russian Federation changeover, what with the coup and all that.
I'm not 100% sure if Putin's reign will continue long after the Russian forces are ejected from Ukraine. My (completely unfounded) estimate is that the Russians will be decisively beaten and in retreat over their borders by Sept/Oct time. By that time the Russian economy will be in taters (if the West keeps up its sanctions) and to get things back to something approaching normality Putin might be deposed and handed over to a Nuremburg style war crimes commission to get back in the good graces of the West. We'll have to see how it goes but I do think the clock is ticking for Putin and his military commanders - the ones who haven't already been killed so far anyway!
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I'm honestly surprised the Russians are faring this poorly. In this day of asymmetrical warfare, it wouldn't be a surprise if an occupation turned into a quagmire, but the initial invasion? It's like 1905 all over again..
I think the combination of the Ukrainian forces doing so well and the Russian forces doing SO badly has surprised just about everyone. the 'myth' of Russian superiority has gone forever I think. It seems to be a combination of poor planning, false expectations of their reception - anti-tank rockets rather than flowers! - poorly maintained equipment, poor or absent leadership, a mysterious lack of air support, poor morale and probably other things that slipped my mind.
Now that the invasion is going to last months (if not longer) rather than days, the Russians don't have a chance of coming out of this in one piece. This totally botched invasion (to say nothing of future war crimes indictments) may just have destroyed Russia as we know it.
"As we know it" being the important phrase....the Afghan war and Chernobyl helped drive the Soviet Union into the graveyard of history (joining its millions of victims!), but "Russia" endures. I still think Putin is cunning enough to land on his feet, but some kind of political shakeup in Moscow would no longer surprise me. Hopefully it wouldn't be as potentially volatile as the USSR-Russian Federation changeover, what with the coup and all that.
I'm not 100% sure if Putin's reign will continue long after the Russian forces are ejected from Ukraine. My (completely unfounded) estimate is that the Russians will be decisively beaten and in retreat over their borders by Sept/Oct time. By that time the Russian economy will be in taters (if the West keeps up its sanctions) and to get things back to something approaching normality Putin might be deposed and handed over to a Nuremburg style war crimes commission to get back in the good graces of the West. We'll have to see how it goes but I do think the clock is ticking for Putin and his military commanders - the ones who haven't already been killed so far anyway!
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