A View from the Other Side of the Pond: The US Election
I’m really not going to say much or anything that hasn’t really already been said. I almost decided not to post anything at all, but... I know many people, not just in the US itself, are disappointed (or even appalled) by Trump winning the Presidential election (again) and I’m one of them. Personally, I think it's a bad decision and I’m glad (yet again) not to be a US citizen or to live in the US. Apart from a few who will undoubtedly get richer because of it and Trump himself who will now escape prison for good (no doubt), I think that most people who voted for this will eventually regret it for one reason or another once the honeymoon glow has faded. It is, I think, just a matter of time and circumstance.
A few things that I think will happen next is that the existence of NATO as we presently know it is not long for this world. It will probably cease to exist in the next 5 years. This is not actually a terrible thing. NATO has struggled to find a role for itself in the post-Cold War world. Without the Soviet Union to oppose why would it even need to exist? Of course, a resurgent Russia has added a frisson of use but still... If the US does leave NATO (as I suspect it will in Trump’s presidency) I suspect that it will reconstitute itself as a European alliance along with Scandinavia and the UK. This will be more than enough to contain Russia’s expansionary desires in Europe. Afterall, from being believed to be the 2nd best military force in the world we now KNOW that Russia is the 2nd best force in Ukraine. Handling any further aggression in Europe is not beyond our capabilities.
Speaking of Ukraine, I’m fairly certain that one of the first things that Trump will do is pull the plug on any US aid to that country. This will have two consequences – it will lengthen the war by 6-12 months and it will hurt the US economy. It will not (I strongly suspect) stop the war or force the Ukrainians to capitulate. It will result in more Ukrainians, Russians and, now, North Koreans dying but Trump doesn’t give a rat's ass about any of that. After the Ukrainian victory next year or in 2026 I suspect that Ukraine will be welcomed into both the EU and the European Defence Alliance as a very valuable partner.
As to the rest, I suspect that the US and the world at large will inevitably become a more dangerous place – especially if, as is likely, that America falls back into isolationism. China, I expect, is looking forward to expanding its influence around the world without US interference. I expect that the new administration will leave various treaties and treaty obligations pretty swiftly after January 2025. I don’t think it will leave the UN but even that is a possibility. China would probably be delighted if they did as they would dominate the UN Security Council and all that followed from that fact.
On the upside, because I’m nothing if not an eternal optimist, at least Florida will never be hit by a hurricane ever again – now that trump and his MAGA minions will have unrestricted access to the Democrat weather technology. Although I suspect that the conspiracy theory twonks have already decided that the tech has been destroyed so that Trump can’t help his buddies in Florida – the BASTARDS!
8 comments:
So many more women are going to die as a result of these abortion bans. If the Department of Education ceases to exist, all my students who get to attend school and have success because of their IEPs and special education services are going to be left behind. I am furious. I am beyond furious. I will never forgive a single one of these people who voted for him. Never. And I don't want to hear a peep from any mediocre white man saying I am being hysterical, because I'm not. Project 2025 spells it out pretty clearly and Vance will do whatever he can to implement as much as he can. I fucking hate it here.
What Sarah said. 🤬
Both.... Ok, first thing... Its not the end of the world. OK, it *might* be if the US gets into a shooting war with China, but... its not the end of the world right now - even though it feels that way. Yes, things didn't go the way we wanted (or expected!) and, yes, things are going to get worse in a LOT of ways, but.... Its possible that all of the shit Trump & his minions said to *get* elected was just so much hot air and none of it was actually intended. Unlikely, but possible. Then there's going to be a LOT of opposition to at least some of the Project 2025 agenda, so its debatable just how much of it will be enacted and how quickly. If that can be delayed for 2 years there's the opportunity to upset the applecart with the mid-terms (if you still have elections by then of course). So, you've got THAT to work with and towards. In the meantime, don't disengage, don't give up. You're the same people, with the same beliefs and the same politics as before. Unfortunately you're going to have to fight a bit longer and a bit harder to see them come to fruition. Its not over. Its not done. Help who you can. Protect who you can. Do your best to make where you live a better place. Build from the ground. Look ahead and, above everything, hope. Things have changed (or been uncovered?). Things can change again....
I wish I had some of your optimism, Cyberkitten. :/ The partisanship in this country depresses me. I grew up in a deeply blue state where I was afraid to voice a dissenting opinion. Now I live in a deeply red state where I'm still afraid to say what I think. E.g. I've spent my entire life not belonging anywhere, politically speaking. I'm moving in the next year or so, and the timing, while a coincidence, is a bit of a relief.
Thank you for thinking I'm an optimist! Actually I'm a *deeply* pessimistic cynic. It's just that my imagination is SO dark that things almost always turn out better - and sometimes MUCH better - than I expected. Saying that, I think that America will be a disaster zone for at least the next two years - unless you're a white MAGA male and quite likely that won't save you. I think we're all very much living through History ATM (in the sense that books will *definitely* be written about these times for generations to come) but you guys - in the generic sense - *voted* for it. [shakes head] What else can be said....?
The BEST of luck with your upcoming move. I hope that wherever you end up you can feel able to be the person you are and not hide anymore!
Thanks for the pep talk, but I’m a realist. Many people will die even if they don’t change another thing. Women are already dying because they can’t access reproductive care. People are already barely getting by because of greed-flation. We have a growing number of mobile homeless who live in their vehicles because they can’t afford housing. But they will change things, the first is cutting off aid to Ukraine, and give Netanyahu a free pass in Palestine. That said, I am getting my head right. “You are not obligated to complete the work, but neither are you free to desist from it.” Perkei Avot 2:21 I will continue the good fight.
Good. Remember that it was anything *but* an 'overwhelming' victory. A 2% swing towards the Democrats and you get it all back...
It is not the end of the literal world, but women are already dying because of the abortion bans. Israel will continue its genocidal campaign against the Palestinians, and the day after the election my second graders were asking if they would be sent to Mexico - away from the place they were born and the only home they've ever known. If their parents are deported, what will happen to them? The cabinet nominations are also worrying, considering some are literal authors of Project 2025. trump's majority is narrow, but that basically means we need Collins and Murkowski every single time.
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