Just Finished Reading: How Markets Fail – The Logic of Economic Calamities by John Cassidy (FP: 2009) [361pp] 

I have long had a poor opinion of Economics as a study and Economists as a profession. Through various downturns and the odd crisis over the decades they seem either completely bemused or dangerously overconfident about any event or trend we’re living through at that time. Reading up on the topic in recent years I’m beginning to realise why they all too often seem not to understand what’s going on – because they don’t. 

Such complete lack of understanding was on full display during the 2007/2008 financial crisis that almost tipped the world into a Depression more reminiscent of the post-1929 Wallstreet Crash. Only Herculean (and VERY expensive) intervention by governments across the world – at least this complete irony was a delight in the face of ‘free market fundamentalists’ who harp on about governments being an impediment to economic activity rather than its saviour – saved us from mass unemployment and soup kitchens throughout the world (and, no doubt MUCH worse). But why did it happen? How did we manage to miss any signs of upcoming collapse and why didn’t the ‘market’ “self-correct” as it's ‘supposed’ to? 

I’d probably blame Adam Smith. His idea of the ‘invisible hand’ that guides sellers to buyers and always gets the best price for everything has a lot to answer for. Market fundamentalists don’t just think that the free market is the best way to organising our economic life, they don’t even think that it's the only way – they believe, in their heart of hearts, as an act of unquestioned Faith, that the market is PERFECT. They believe, against all logic, against all reason and against actual historical fact, that bubbles, crashes and Depressions simply don’t happen. The reason they ‘seem’ to happen is twofold – firstly that people don’t understand what they’re seeing and that government interference is throwing sand in the wheels of the economy. If only they got out of the way and let the market self-correct everything would be fine. Sure, businesses and banks would fail. Sure, people would be out of work and maybe a handful of them would starve. Sure, there would be a modicum of social angst, unrest and handwringing but in the end, months, years or maybe decades down the line, once the dust had settled and the bodies had been buried, everything would be fine and the stock market would rise again, bigger, better and healthier than before once the deadwood and the brush had been removed and set on fire. 

Except, of course, the real world isn’t like that – at all. Now I have no issue with the idea that models of the world, or of the human activity in it – Economics – are a simplified, and often very simplified, version of reality. But, along with the idea of perfect markets we need to add in the idea of rational people who operate with perfect knowledge regarding what they’re buying and what they’re paying for it. Now, with less than two seconds thought I think we’d all agree that people are rather less than fully rational most of the time and we most certainly do not operate with anything close to perfect knowledge about anything – including ourselves. It's a bit like coming up with an equation to explain a natural phenomenon but it only works for spherical chickens in a vacuum. The answer might very well be ‘elegant’ and it might even work – at least sometimes – but it won’t be a very good reflection of the real-world. It shouldn’t surprise anyone that economists working with this level of ‘theory’ can’t really explain why a non-perfect market in which irrational people often make irrational decisions with inadequate knowledge sometimes does strange and dangerous things – like bubbles, depressions and crashes. 

I think we all remember the 2007/2008 financial turmoil and the years long aftereffects. Different countries reacted in different ways but, generally, this involved bailouts of banks and other institutions that were considered ‘too big to fail’, austerity measures and much else besides. What we saw precious little of was people held to account – almost anywhere – and fundamental changes to the way banks, financial institutions and the market itself was allowed to function. The conditions that led to the crash/crisis (or whatever you want to call it) still, by and large, exist. There is little in place to stop it happening again. 

I’ve been trying to wrap my head around and understand Economics from around 2010 (for obvious reasons). This book has greatly aided that quest. I can completely understand why it became book of the year in the Economist on publication. The author really knows his stuff and had interviewed the ‘people in the room’ who were at the very centre of things as they unfolded in the money markets and in government – especially the US Federal Reserve. I thought the result was not only very informative – he spends the first half of the book explain how we got here going back to Adam Smith himself – but also very even handed. There is/was certainly enough blame to go around, not only in the banks and financial institutions who created, traded and then defaulted on countless toxic loans but also in government (who helped enable things) and the bodies entrusted to oversee and regulate things. If you’ve ever wondered exactly what happened in the run-up to the financial disaster we all lived through and want to understand exactly why it happened, then this is most definitely the book for you. It’s not an easy read though. Despite an almost complete lack of equations this is still fairly dense and technical in places. It's not the kind of thing you can skim read to get the gist. Concentration and thought is required – at least from time to time. A basic knowledge of economic thought will help but the author does go through quite a lot between the covers. Highly recommended.  

Collaborators....? Enablers....?

Happy Birthday: Alfred Elton van Vogt (April 26, 1912 – January 26, 2000) was a Canadian-born American science fiction writer. His fragmented, bizarre narrative style influenced later science fiction writers, notably Philip K. Dick. He was one of the most popular and influential practitioners of science fiction in the mid-twentieth century, the genre's so-called Golden Age, and one of the most complex. The Science Fiction Writers of America named him their 14th Grand Master in 1995 (presented 1996).

Van Vogt's first completed novel, and one of his most famous, is Slan (Arkham House, 1946), which Campbell serialized in Astounding (September to December 1940). Using what became one of van Vogt's recurring themes, it told the story of a nine-year-old superman living in a world in which his kind are slain by Homo sapiens.

Others saw van Vogt's talent from his first story, and in May 1941 van Vogt decided to become a full-time writer, quitting his job at the Canadian Department of National Defence. Freed from the necessity of living in Ottawa, he and his wife lived for a time in the Gatineau region of Quebec before moving to Toronto in the fall of 1941.

Prolific throughout this period, van Vogt wrote many of his more famous short stories and novels in the years from 1941 through 1944. The novels The Book of Ptath and The Weapon Makers both appeared in magazines in serial form during this period; they were later published in book form after World War II. As well, several (though not all) of the stories that were compiled to make up the novels The Weapon Shops of Isher, The Mixed Men and The War Against the Rull were published during this time.

When the 1979 film Alien appeared, it was noted that the plot closely matched the plots of both Black Destroyer and Discord in Scarlet, both published in Astounding magazine in 1939, and then later published in the 1950 book Voyage of the Space Beagle. Van Vogt sued the production company for plagiarism, and eventually collected an out-of-court settlement of $50,000 from 20th Century Fox.

[I was a BIG fan of A E van Vogt back when I was consuming SF on an industrial scale. He's definitely a founding father of Sci-Fi and one reason why I love the genre so much.]

Happy World Penguin Day.....!

OK... Two things wrong with this. First, we wouldn't waste eggs on it even though ours are MUCH cheaper than in the US. It's much more likely that either paint or petrol bombs would be involved. Second, the Cybertruck is banned from the road in both Europe & the UK because its in violation of EU/UK driving regulations. Plus, because of its excessive weight here (and on the Mainland I think) you also need a special licence over and above the usual car driving licence which makes running it more expensive - oh, and also the standard charging plugs here & in the EU are non-compliant with Tesla's. A few *have* been imported (I've heard) but the moment the police see them they're immediately stopped and impounded....  

Just Finished Reading: The Shortest History of Democracy by John Keane (FP: 2022) [201pp] 

Whenever people (including myself here) think of the origins of Democracy they usually point to ancient Athens as its birthplace. According to this interesting and often fascinating book the reason we think this is because Athens had a particularly good PR department and left a plethora of documents to back up their claim (or at the very least the claims of future historians). In fact, assembly democracy is far older than the Athenian version and was far more widely spread across Asia and into the Indian sub-continent. As you might expect from a diverse group of cultures the variety of these democratic states were varied in their rules, their longevity and their ultimate end. 

Although the democratic impulse didn’t die in Athens it took very much a back seat across the world until what we now think of as “Democracy” slowly came together throughout the 18th and 19th centuries most notably in Europe and the newly minted United States. Yet again, for cultural and historical reasons each variety of democracy varied, often significantly, from other versions along lines of who could vote, how people voted, how often they could vote and much else. For most of that time only men of property could cast their ballot but, slowly, the wealth/property restriction was relaxed and, eventually – although surprisingly late in some countries – women were eventually given the same voting rights as men. Other groups, notably racial minorities, took even longer to gain the right. 

The history of democracy has been far from straightforward. It has ebbed and flowed across Europe and the world, emerging here, falling there. There was a flowering following the Great War and the self-asserted right to free determination. It retreated in the 1920’s and 30’s in the face of the rise of fascism and other strains of totalitarianism. It flowered again with the fall of the Soviet Union and was, at least briefly, declared triumphant. That, as we know, didn’t last long and we are, yet again, living through a time when democracy is under stress or even in retreat across the globe. How such a process plays out will have to be seen. 

This was definitely a thought provoking and very well argued look at the democratic urge throughout history. I certainly learnt a lot and reading this showed me, amongst other things, not to take democracy for granted – as many people around the world are finding out. Along with the desire to be directly involved in the running of any particular state (or organisation) there is all too often the countervailing desire to restrict people’s access to this sort of power. Democracy is, by its very nature messy and inefficient but people are, as a rule, also messy and inefficient. Democracy allows voices to be heard, decisions to be made that encompass more ideas and a better, deeper understanding of what people want and what people will accept. But it can’t just be the right to vote for a leadership every 4-5 years and that’s it. Any government, even a democratically elected one, can overstep its powers and having to quietly wait years to address the problem is no longer tenable. Governments need holding to account, they need to be monitored, exposed to publicity, laughed at, and checked by the law, by public protest, by independent investigations, by a free press and by people being aware enough and politically educated enough to know what’s happening. Reading this book will help with that. Definitely recommended in this troubled time. More ‘short’ histories to come especially from this most impressive series.  

Just Finished Reading: Letter from Birmingham Jail by Martin Luther King Jr (FP: 1963) [51pp] 

Although I know something of the US Civil Rights movement (more later!) and MLK Jr himself (ditto) it was good to read the actual words of this significant American thinker and activist. ‘Letter...’ was in its essence a defence of the Rights movements use of non-violent but disruptive tactics in the US South against those who wanted MLK Jr and his followers to cool things down and ‘wait’ for deliverance in due time as well as against those in the larger Black community who advocated for a more robust and violent defence of their cause and very existence. Still, after all this time, it's a very powerful argument for everything he believed in and the power of a community united in its opposition to oppression and the denial of basic Human Rights. 

In addition to ‘Letter...’ this brief booklet also contains ‘The Three Dimensions of a Complete Life’ which was a sermon, given by MLK Jr, on the fundamental pillars of a Good Life. These he listed as Love of Self, Love of your Neighbour and Love of God. A person was incomplete without any of these three pillars or dimensions. Again, his arguments are good and, as far as I could tell, grounded both in Greek philosophy and, naturally, Christianity. 

This was the first book(let) in the Penguin Modern Classics boxset I picked up for my recent birthday. Containing 50 volumes taken from a very wide range of authors I’m looking forward to encountering new authors and new perspectives from across the globe. The ‘plan’ is to read the first 10 items from both boxsets (the other being the Penguin Little Black Classics series) this year and with, maybe, another 20 from each next year. At around 50-60 pages each they’re excellent for expanding my range (I might even start feeling a bit more ‘well read’ by the end of it) and adding much needed depth to my all too thin Review pile! More to come. Recommended.  

"Economics so effortlessly offers the needed ingredients for chaos that, rather than being surprised about exotic dynamics, we should be suspicious about models which are always stable."

Donald G Saari 

What...? AND Christmas....?

"The perils of uncontrolled power are perennial reminders of the virtues of a democratic society. But modern democracy requires a more realistic philosophical and religious basis, not only in order to anticipate and understand the perils to which it is exposed, but also to give it a more persuasive justification. Man's capacity for justice makes democracy possible; but man's inclination to injustice makes democracy necessary."

Reinhold Niebuhr, The Children of Light and the Children of Darkness (1945). 

Happy Birthday: Eliot Ness (April 19, 1903 – May 16, 1957) was an American Prohibition agent known for his efforts to bring down Al Capone while enforcing Prohibition in Chicago. He was leader of a team of law enforcement agents nicknamed The Untouchables, handpicked for their incorruptibility. The release of his memoir The Untouchables, months after his death, launched several screen portrayals establishing a posthumous fame for Ness as an incorruptible crime fighter.

In March 1930, attorney Frank J. Loesch of the Chicago Crime Commission asked President Herbert Hoover to take down Al Capone. Agents of the Bureau of Internal Revenue, working under Elmer Irey and Special Agent Frank J. Wilson of the Intelligence Unit, were already investigating Capone and his associates for income tax evasion. In late 1930, Attorney General William D. Mitchell, seeking a faster end to the case, implemented a plan devised by President Hoover for sending a small team of Prohibition agents, working under a special United States attorney, to target the illegal breweries and supply routes of Capone while gathering evidence of conspiracy to violate the National Prohibition Act (informally known as the Volstead Act). U.S. attorney George E.Q. Johnson, the Chicago prosecutor directly in charge of both the Prohibition and income tax investigations of Capone, chose the 27-year-old Ness (now assigned to the Justice Department) to lead this small squad.

With corruption of Chicago's law enforcement agents endemic, Ness went through the records of all Prohibition agents to create a reliable team (initially of six, eventually growing to about ten) later known as "The Untouchables." Raids against illegal stills and breweries began in March 1931. Within six months, Ness's agents had destroyed bootlegging operations worth an estimated $500,000 (almost $9.9 million in 2022) and representing an additional $2 million ($39.5 million in 2022) in lost income for Capone; their raids would ultimately cost Capone in excess of $9 million ($178 million in 2022) in lost revenue. The main source of information for the raids was an extensive wiretapping operation.

In 1931, a member of Al Capone's gang promised Ness that he would receive $2,000 every week ($36,684.27 in 2022) if he ignored their bootlegging activities. Ness refused the bribe. Failed attempts by members of the Chicago Outfit to bribe or intimidate Ness and his agents inspired Charles Schwarz of the Chicago Daily News to begin calling them "untouchables". George Johnson adopted the nickname and promoted it to the press, establishing it as the squad's unofficial title.

The efforts of Ness and his team inflicted major financial damage on Capone's operations and led to his indictment on 5,000 violations of the Volstead Act in June 1931. Federal judge James H. Wilkerson prevented that indictment from coming to trial, instead pursuing the tax evasion case built by George Johnson and Frank Wilson. On October 17, 1931, Capone was convicted on three of 22 counts of tax evasion. He was sentenced to eleven years in prison and, following a failed appeal, began his sentence in 1932. On May 3, 1932, Ness was among the federal agents who took Capone from the Cook County Jail to Dearborn Station, where he boarded the Dixie Flyer to the Atlanta Federal Penitentiary—the only time the two men are known to have met in person.

Seemed appropriate...... [grin]

Just Finished Reading: Nomads – The Wanderers Who Shaped Our World by Anthony Sattin (FP: 2022) [310pp] 

Go back far enough in our collective human history and we were all nomads. The few of us who existed in that long gone pre-historic age wandered the Earth hunting, fishing and generally getting on with our lives. Gradually, for a number of reasons, a few and then a few more, moved less or less often then, gradually ceased moving around and settled. From that point on the tension between the mobile and the settled has only grown. Of course, as we know, history is written by the victors but in this case there’s an added twist. Nomads, as a rule, leave behind no monuments, few artifacts and even few documents. By their very nature they travel light and have a light impact on the world. The settled, by contrast, have the ability, the numbers and often the wealth to build monuments that outlast their civilisations, leave behind a plethora of objects wherever they live and leave behind contracts, bills of sale and letters to loved ones. It's not surprising therefore that our nomadic ancestors and more their modern descendants have received a poor press when they received the attention a press at all. The author of this intriguing book does what he can (and does it well) to address that issue. 

The problem, as alluded to already, is that much of what we know about ancient, and more recent, nomadic tribes comes from the settled who had direct or indirect contact with them. As you might imagine much of the ‘press’ has been negative – sometimes with good reason but often without. Nomad all too often is synonymous with barbarian – those that lack sophistication or the trappings of civilisation. Unsurprisingly they are looked down upon, exploited, harassed and feared. Yet, throughout our long history, they have produced some awesome artifacts and have ruled over vast lands, empires and trade routes that shaped our entire planets history. Ignoring or sidelining nomadic people is telling only half the story of mankind at best. Despite the fact that the settled ‘civilised’ have triumphed over the nomadic doesn’t mean that they have contributed little (or nothing) of note nor that they can be ‘disappeared’ from the history books without doing real damage to our knowledge or understanding of humanity. 

This was definitely an interesting read, looking as it does from the ‘other side’ of history and focusing on those who move rather than exclusively on those who stand still (geographically speaking). The interaction of the nomad and the city-dweller is an important one and I think this book makes a creditable contribution to understanding that process. I certainly learnt a lot and by the end could more appreciate the value of those who chose to remain with their herds and their horses whilst others moved inside walls. Definitely recommended for anyone interested in a very different way of life. 

Just Finished Reading: Desert Raiders by Lucien Soulban (FP: 2007) [245pp] 

The distress signal was strong. Strong enough to kill the receiving psyker and incapacitate three others. An Imperial Guard unit had been eliminated, and naval units were dispatched to find out who, where and how. Two battered Tallarn regiments, barely recovered from previous battles, had been dropped on the barren desert planet – previously unknown and presently unregistered – to investigate. Within hours of their arrival the orbital fleet was directed to another emergency and assured the Imperial Guard units that further supplies would be dropped in 90 days. After months of base building, patrolling and growing tension between factions with a long and troubled history contact with the fleet and Sector command had not been established. For now at least they were on their own. With supplies running low and infighting becoming a real possibility, a sudden arrival from space manages to concentrate minds. It would certainly explain why they had been abandoned and why their supply drop was so overdue. Two hundred kilometres away in the deep desert a ship had arrived that drove fear into the hearts of the most experienced warriors amongst them. They were about to face the horror of the galaxy, the relentless force with only one aim, one mission, one drive – to feed. The Tyranids had arrived... 

This is my second Warhammer 40K novel. As much as I enjoyed my first experience with the novel side of things (I’ve been playing the PC game versions for years) I enjoyed this even more. It did start rather slowly with lots of good character building, world building and the expected sprinkling of 40K lore but I forgave all of that once the action started. The Tryranids are a truly terrifying species – imagine the xenomorph from Aliens except there are THOUSANDS of them and some of them are HUGE, some can fly or burrow through solid rock and some of them carry guns firing living hungry bullets – so the carnage was sometimes quite breathtaking. The second half of the novel, except for short breaks and breathing spaces, was almost constant combat so if you’re put off by that kind of Sci-Fi based fighting this is definitely not the book for you! If, however, you’re a fan of Combat SF then this will definitely tick ALL of your boxes. 

I actually wasn’t expecting all that much from this novel sequence. I suppose that I assumed that they’d just be disposable fun (for an existing 40K fan) but I’ve been surprised by how creditable the writing is over and above the action and the lore. The characterisation here was particularly good with respectable nuance and believable backstories and motivations. Some of it was clearly taken from the existing split in Islam but it still worked. Although there’s ZERO chance that I’ll get around to reading even a reasonable percentage of the books in this series produced so far, I’m definitely looking forward to reading more from this grim dark universe. Recommended for fans of 40K and of combat SF in general. 

Happy Birthday: Richard Oliver Postgate (12 April 1925 – 8 December 2008) was an English animator, puppeteer, and writer. He was the creator and writer of some of Britain's most popular children's television programmes. Bagpuss, Pingwings, Noggin the Nog, Ivor the Engine, Clangers and Pogles' Wood, were all made by Smallfilms, the company he set up with collaborator, artist and puppet maker Peter Firmin. The programmes were originally broadcast by the BBC from the 1950s to the 1980s. In a 1999 BBC poll Bagpuss was voted the most popular children's television programme of all time.

Clangers (usually referred to as The Clangers) is a British stop-motion animated children's television series, consisting of short films about a family of mouse-like creatures who live on, and inside, a small moon-like planet. They speak only in a whistled language, and eat green soup (supplied by the Soup Dragon) and blue string pudding. The programmes were originally broadcast on BBC1 between 1969 and 1972, followed by a special episode which was broadcast in 1974.

The series was made by Smallfilms, the company set up by Oliver Postgate (who was the show's writer, animator and narrator) and Peter Firmin (who was its modelmaker and illustrator). Firmin designed the characters, and Joan Firmin, his wife, knitted and "dressed" them. The music, often part of the story, was provided by Vernon Elliott.

A third series, narrated by Monty Python actor Michael Palin, was broadcast in the UK in June 2015 on the BBC's CBeebies TV channel, gaining hugely successful viewing figures, following on from a short special broadcast by the BBC earlier that year. The new programmes are still made using stop-motion animation (instead of the computer-generated imagery which had replaced the original stop-motion animation in revivals of other children's shows such as Fireman Sam, Thomas & Friends and The Wombles). Further new series were made in 2017 and 2019.

Clangers won the British Academy Children's Award for Pre-School Animation in 2015.

[I LOVED The Clangers growing up - although I was probably a bit 'old' for them. I *think* either my Mum or my Nan knitted me one (or that could've been for my sister.... possibly.....]

Just Finished Reading: Footmarks – A Journey into Our Restless Past by Jim Leary (FP: 2024) [238pp] 

The problem with digging up the deep past is that everything is static, dead, unmoving. Even Roman roads, ancient pathways, and drover's lanes are empty. Of course, when they were in daily use, they were anything but – that's the rub. How do you excavate a world on the move?  

That is the interesting question at the heart of this often-fascinating book. Humans move around a LOT and this was true thousands, indeed tens of thousands of years ago as it is today – except without continent spanning aircraft or ocean spanning liners. For much of our history if you wanted to go any great distance you walked there or, if you were lucky or rich, rode there on horseback. This is what we, and humanities predecessors, did. We got up and we walked out of Africa and across Eurasia and into both the America’s and Australia (although the last bit of that particular journey was by boat). 

There is a great deal of (growing) evidence for our mobile past from fossilised footprints (fascinating in and of themselves), to the very earliest bridges, river fords and more permanent constructions. To our very earliest boats of wood and leather to ocean going Viking craft. We have genetic evidence of grand movements of people, evidence of the spread of ideas, technology and burial beliefs over thousands of years and thousands of miles. All of this brings the dead, static, unmoving past to a more mobile, more visible, more human clarity. 

This is definitely a very different way of looking at the deep past. Despite some very good writing it did take me a little while to ‘reorientate’ myself (pun obviously intended!) to the author's vision but once I did a great deal of his arguments made perfect sense. Humans move – a LOT. So, viewing artifacts and structures with that in mind help us to understand why roads are where they are and go where they go. It helps to explain pilgrimages and religious sites, it helps to explain why coins and other artifacts are located in rivers, wells and other locations. It even explains the location of gates, doorways and walls. Seeing places without an occupying human community is only half the picture. This book helps being able to at least imagine, if not actually ‘see’ the other half. Full of interesting ideas, observations and discoveries. Definitely recommended for anyone interested in our very human mobile past.