Votes at 16: No demand, says polling expert

By Eleanor Gruffydd-Jones, BBC Sunday Politics Wales

18 May 2019

Votes for 16-year-olds in UK elections are all but inevitable, but there is no public demand or obvious advantage to it, a voting expert has said. A bill currently going through the Senedd would lower the voting age at the 2021 Welsh Assembly election. Prof Philip Cowley said evidence suggested 16 and 17-year-olds were less likely to vote than older groups. But the chair of the panel that backed votes at 16 in assembly polls said the move could revitalise democracy.

Sixteen and 17-year-olds voted for the first time in the Scottish independence referendum in 2014 and can now take part in Scottish parliament and local elections. They can also vote in Guernsey, Jersey and the Isle of Man. Prof Cowley, from Queen Mary University of London, has written to the Welsh Assembly saying evidence from other countries with a lower minimum voting age suggests overall turnout would drop, because turnout for 16-and 17-year-olds tends to be lower than other groups. This was unless, he said, money was spent to specifically target the age group, like in the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum when 16-year-olds voted for the first time in the UK. "If young voters are ready to vote, then we should not need to allocate specific resources to mobilise them," he told BBC Sunday Politics Wales. "That we do, indicates that they are not ready."

He added: "Even some of the things you used to be able to do at the age of 16, say 10 or so years ago, you can no longer do, things like smoking, buying a firework for example, going into a tanning booth. All of these have changed recently and if they've changed at all, they've tend to change upwards towards 18. [Votes for 16] is coming. I think you can see with what's happening in Wales, what's already happening in Scotland. The pressure will then build up for elsewhere in the UK. When it happens, I don't think any of the advantages that are being claimed for it will manifest themselves but it is probably inevitable."

Prof Laura McAllister was chair of the expert panel that, as part of its report on how the Senedd could be developed, recommended votes for 16 and 17-year-olds in Welsh Assembly elections. She said lowering the vote would be a mechanism to revitalise democracy, "particularly if you align that with a programme of proper political education through the curriculum, and in an extra-curricular environment. We know that getting young people involved in the voting process, whilst they're still in a secure environment, generally living at home, is likely to be more successful than it is at 18 when they've either left home to go to university or entering a more turbulent phase of their life in terms of change." She said, looking at the evidence from parliamentary and local elections in Scotland, 16 to 18-year-olds voted in larger numbers than 18 to 25-year-olds. "So that tells you something at least about the potential that there is to engage young people in the political process," she added.

[I’m not convinced that dropping the voting age to 16 will achieve much unless, as Prof McAllister suggested, we start political education in schools – probably from age 11 I’d say. It’s something I’ve been personally advocating for years. I don’t think that the general population is anywhere nearly enough educated politically in this country. The problem is, of course, to not cross that line separating political education from political indoctrination. Now that could be a tough one…..]

Just Finished Reading: Misbehaving – The Making of Behavioural Economics by Richard H Thaler (FP: 2015)

Despite the fact that I’m still pretty much scratching the surface of economics I’ve long held the opinion that the underlying theories are seriously flawed. This book helped confirm that idea although in ways I wasn’t fully expecting. When I read about the subject years ago (pre-Blog) I was confused by ideas like ‘perfect knowledge’, ‘maximising utility’ and the idea that economic units – that’s you and me and your next door neighbour – behave rationally at all times. Just that particular nugget should raise alarm bells. But all of that – that people have somehow developed perfect knowledge of price alternatives, that we can all gauge to the penny which career choice is better over an entire lifetime and that we always buy exactly what we need at the best possible price and that no other considerations come into the decision. In such a world there are no recessions, unemployment does not exist, and inflation is fleeting as the market naturally adjusts to changes in supply and demand. Likewise economic decisions are not influenced by the weather, fashion, fads or internet ‘influencers’. Economics is, indeed, the prefect representation of theories that have grown up over generations along with increased mathematical rigor to say nothing of prestige and, indeed, Nobel Prizes.

Unfortunately, despite the protestations of the world’s greatest living Economists it’s all bullshit built on nothing more that ivory tower wishful thinking. OK, the author isn’t *quite* that brutal but he does lean that way. Back in the 1970’s he started having heretical views. Views that led him to think that maybe, just maybe, economics would have greater and more predictive power if it took into account how people – real people – thought about money and actually spent it. Using experiments more akin to those used in Psychology labs the author and a few radical collaborators started finding disturbing evidence that classic economics simply failed to understand the real world it was supposed to be explaining. With the advent of computers and the growth of economic databases it became increasing clear that the emerging Behavioural Economics had something to say and something to contribute to the study of Economic activity (go figure!). Over the next 40 years, grudgingly at first, Behavioural Economics moved from the lunatic fringe and into the mainstream. What was simple heresy has, slowly, become obvious. It was a long hard road and it’s not over yet. 

Told with a great deal of humour – a lot of it self-deprecating – the author shows how the history of Behavioural Economics unfolded and grew from a few voices in the wilderness to being invited in by governments to create ‘nudge units’ to help move people in the right direction in subjects like paying their taxes to taking up vaccinations. Along the way there’s a lot of resistance from mainstream economists (allowing much debate about its many shortcomings) and a lot of going back to basics to show – with DATA – how Behavioural Economics can explain activity that classical could not (or even could not recognise as a legitimate problem worthy of study). Although a little dry in places, complete with diagrams and graphs, this is still a very good and very useful to a whole new branch of economics that has only really existed in any recognised state for a few decades. A definite must read for anyone interested in the subject. More to come. 

Cartoon Time.

Summer…. At Last?

After weeks of grey skies and occasion (sometimes heavy) rain it looks like the weather has finally turned a corner. Today we had wall to wall blue skies (my favourite) with occasional fluffy clouds and rising temperatures (high of 64 degrees). One other thing that will be rising – apart from hemlines – is the pollen count. Fortunately that’s not as big a problem as it used to be. In my late 20’s to late 30’s I really dreaded the summer months. Essentially for 3-4 months I had a heavy cold complete with temperature, headaches, sore throat and constant running nose – and this was despite being on daily anti-histamines. It was no fun at all. The only real relief I had was being in an air-conditioned building. Not only was it a lot cooler but the air tended to be filtered.

It all started in my mid-20’s as I was due to leave University (the doctor blamed stress) and I tried the first over the counter medication I could find which proved to be of limited use. After much trial and error (and some helpful advice from a friend) I settled on a drug that helped me get through the day – not perfect but at least I could function (after a fashion). I did try everything to limit the symptoms especially at home. I didn’t go out much in the summer – ending up even pastier than usual – and has several air filters running all day whilst I was at work. Again they helped after a fashion. I supposed that this was just my life now. It was pretty miserable though. I’m quite fond of breathing – especially through my nose – which I found difficult throughout both the summer and the winter. Bummer!

Then, after only 15 years or so things began (slowly) to ease off. It was something I hardly noticed at first just thinking that my luck had changed and the pollen count just happened to be lower that day, that week or that summer. After about 20 years or so I stopped taking medication ahead of the summer months in order to build up some immunity. Whenever I felt my eyes starting to burn or the sniffles start I’d pop a pill and see the symptoms ease off. Sometimes I’d take a daily pill a few days in a row but overall I wasn’t popping pills anywhere as regularly as I had been. So around 30 years after I was regularly floored by the pollen (after pretty much ignoring it through my entire childhood and teenage years!) count I started to largely ignore it.

These days – indeed at this very moment – I can feel a mild irritation at the top of my nasal cavity and my eyes are burning a bit but it’s hardly a bother. At the beginning of this pollen filled journey I’d be blowing my nose every few minutes and feeling like death around now. I think it’s equally weird how my immune system has now started ((largely) to ignore pollen as it was weird when my system – for reasons unknown – went into overdrive whenever trees started feeling sexy. Most hay fever sufferers (so I understand) are allergic to either tree pollen or grass pollen. Some unlucky bastards are allergic to both. With me it’s always been tree pollen. So I get my symptoms early in the summer. Weirdly (again) on holiday with my ex in Portugal about this time of year (and fully expecting to suffer) I had zero symptoms the whole time being away. I can only guess that the trees spraying everywhere where different enough that my immune system ignored them. Of course as soon as we got home my nose immediately started running away with itself.

So I’m lucky in several ways. It looks like my strongly adverse reaction to tree pollen isn’t coming back any time soon and is, in fact, continuing to ease off and my strong immune response is pollen related only. I know several people with severe food allergies which I would be horrified to have – nuts, dairy, wheat – so I thank my DNA every day that I haven’t been visited by that particular (occasionally fatal) nuisance. But I am so grateful that 30 years of sneezing is about the end of it. Phew.   

The Berlin Airlift ends - 70 Years ago Today.

Cartoon Time.

Sooner than you would think I'm guessing..... [grin]

UK economy rebounds in first quarter

From the BBC

10th May 2019

The UK economy picked up in the first three months of the year after manufacturers' stockpiling ahead of Brexit helped to boost growth. Growth was 0.5% in the quarter, up from 0.2% in the previous three months, the Office for National Statistics said. The manufacturing sector grew at its fastest rate since 1988 in the period. The ONS said this was driven by manufacturers rushing to deliver orders before the original Brexit deadline of 29 March. Pharmaceuticals was one of the sectors most affected, expanding 9.4% between January and March. Previous business surveys had shown manufacturers stockpiling goods for Brexit in case the UK left the EU without a transition deal, which they feared could lead to delays at UK borders.

As well as manufacturers rushing to deliver orders before the UK was due to leave the EU, firms also stockpiled parts. This drove a surge in imports, with the total trade deficit - the gap between what the UK imports and exports - doubling in the first quarter to a record high, separate data from the ONS showed. The total trade deficit widened from £8.9bn to £18.3bn, driven partly by a sharp increase in imports of cars and gold [£6Bn worth!]. However, the UK's deadline to exit the EU has since been extended until the end of October after Prime Minister Theresa May asked the EU for more time to negotiate a deal.

Chancellor Philip Hammond said the figures showed the economy remained "robust". "These GDP figures this morning show again that the UK economy is performing robustly, despite the evidence of slowing global growth and the continued Brexit uncertainty at home - so it's good news," he told the BBC. But analysts have warned the impact of Brexit could mean the pick-up in growth is short-lived.  Tej Parikh, senior economist at business lobby group the Institute of Directors, said it could well be just "a flash in the pan". "Some businesses brought activity forward early this year in preparation for leaving the EU, so higher stocks and earlier orders have artificially bumped up the growth numbers. In the second quarter, many firms will be keen to run down their Brexit caches, which will drag on economic growth," he said. But Ruth Gregory, senior UK Economist at Capital Economics, said the figures offered some "encouraging signs that underlying growth gained some pace". She said household consumption growth was "solid" and pointed out that business investment grew "for the first time in four quarters".

[Stories like this are one reason why I don’t trust the pronouncements of Economists or Chancellors. It’s clear that the so-called ‘boost’ in the economy is from companies stockpiling like crazy because of their fears regarding a no-deal Brexit and getting out as many orders as possible to both avoid any increased tariffs and to get a war chest ready to tide them over any expected issues post-Brexit. This is not simply companies ‘doing well’ despite all of the doom and gloom from Project Fear. Likewise household consumption – hardly something to rely on – is probably people stockpiling (again) plus making purchases now in the expectation that prices will inevitably rise once we leave the single market. The sudden import in gold to the tune of SIX BILLION POUNDS in THREE MONTHS says it all really. People are hunkering down in anticipation of the hard times ahead. This is hardly the sign of an economy ‘doing well’.] 

...and so ends Star Wars Week. Now back to normal programming....... [lol]

If only we could teach them to open doors.....