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Saturday, August 13, 2016


Maybe it won’t be so bad……….

UK economic growth sped up ahead of Brexit vote.

The UK economy grew by 0.6% in the three months to the end of June, as economic growth accelerated in the run-up to the vote to leave the EU. Second-quarter gross domestic product grew faster than expected, up from 0.4% growth in the previous quarter, the Office for National Statistics said. Any uncertainty ahead of last month's referendum seemed "limited", ONS said. However, by far the strongest growth was in April, followed by a sharp easing off in May and June. On a yearly basis the economy grew by a healthy 2.2%. The pick-up in economic activity was boosted by the biggest upturn in industrial output since 1999, particularly from car factories and pharmaceutical firms. ONS chief economist Joe Grice said that as well as the industrial gains, there was also "strong growth across the services sector, particularly retailing". "Any uncertainties in the run-up to the referendum seem to have had a limited effect," he said. "Very few respondents to ONS surveys cited such uncertainties as negatively impacting their businesses."

Foxtons estate agency profits tumble amid Brexit vote.

High-profile London estate agency Foxtons has announced a 42% fall in profits, blaming uncertainty around the EU referendum for the fall. It made a pre-tax profit of £10.5m in the first half of the year compared with £18.1m during the same period a year earlier. There had been a "sharp contraction" in the London property market in the second quarter of the year, it said. Foxton's share price fell by 8% in early trading on Friday. Since the result of the Brexit vote was announced, it has fallen by about 30%. London property prices have risen sharply in recent years owing, in part, to its attraction to overseas investors. However, prices had slowed this year, partly owing to a new stamp duty surcharge facing overseas investors. The result of the referendum, in which the UK voted to leave the EU, would affect the market in the capital, according to Foxton's chief executive Nic Budden. "The result of the referendum to leave Europe is likely to lead to a prolonged period of further uncertainty and we do not expect London residential property sales markets to show signs of recovery before the end of the year," he said.

Eurozone GDP growth halves as French economy stalls.

Eurozone economic growth halved in the second quarter, but the 19-nation single currency area moved away from deflation. GDP rose by 0.3% between April and June, in line with expectations but below 0.6% growth in the first quarter. France, the eurozone's second-largest economy, saw no growth after expanding by 0.7% in the first quarter. Eurozone inflation rose to 0.2% in July from 0.1% in June as a result of higher food, alcohol and tobacco prices. Data also revealed that the eurozone jobless rate remained at 10.1% in June. The economic growth figures are the first to be published since Britain voted to leave the European Union (EU). Peter Vanden Houte, chief economist at ING Bank, said: "The good news is that the economy still has some momentum, though there is little acceleration to be expected as long as the Brexit story continues to inject some uncertainty into the external environment." Across the wider EU, GDP slowed from 0.5% in the first quarter to 0.4% in the three months to June.

BA owner IAG's profits hit by weak pound.

British Airways and Iberia owner IAG says currency movements cost it €148m (£124m) in the latest quarter of trading, mainly due to the weak pound. IAG reported underlying operating profits of €555m for the April-to-June period, up from €530m a year ago but slightly below forecasts. The airline group said its business had been affected by a number of factors. These included the impact of terror attacks, strikes and the uncertainty around the UK's EU referendum. "This led to a softer than expected trading environment, especially in June," said IAG chief executive Willie Walsh. The airline group has also scaled back its forecasts for profit growth across 2016. It now expects operating profit to rise by a "low double digit percentage" this year, compared with earlier predictions of a rise of about 40%.

Brexit knocks manufacturers' confidence – report.

Confidence among manufacturers has slumped since the UK's vote to leave the European Union, a report indicates. Manufacturers' average confidence score dropped to 5.24 after the referendum from 6.37 before the vote, the report from EEF, a manufacturing lobby group, and accountancy firm BDO showed. The biggest fall in confidence was in London and the South East. But the region remained the most confident, with a score of 5.7 out of 10. The least confident regions were the East Midlands and and North West, which both had a score of 5.0, the report said. "The Brexit vote has put the manufacturing sector's recovery in jeopardy," said Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF. "The growth path is now uncertain in all regions." The report said that 25% of companies in the North West had yet to find any business opportunities from Brexit, while 59% were concerned about weaker demand prospects. Manufacturers in Yorkshire and Humber were the most optimistic about opportunities that the UK's exit from the EU may present. A quarter of respondents in the region were positive about lower regulatory burden and increased demand, the report said.

UK factory activity falls 'at fastest pace for three years'.

Activity among UK manufacturers contracted at its fastest pace for three years in July, according to a closely watched survey. The Markit/CIPS manufacturing purchasing managers' index, the first to have full data since the UK's vote to leave the EU, showed a fall to 48.2, the lowest since February 2013. The survey adds to concerns that the vote prompted a sharp fall in activity. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, but below 50 indicates contraction. The decline was sharper than an initial reading of 49.1 indicated late last month. The Markit/CIPS manufacturing index is based on a survey of 600 industrial companies and reflects data on orders, output, employment, suppliers' delivery times and companies' inventories. Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said the survey came "amid increasingly widespread reports that business activity has been adversely affected by the EU referendum". He added: "The downturn was felt across industry, with output scaled back across firms of all sizes and across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods sectors, although exporters did report a boost from the weaker pound."

[Well, the weeks roll on and the news is still (at best) mixed. Chat about Brexit still takes place in hushed tones but, it would seem, most people just want to forget about it and get on with their lives in the new ‘reality’ that we’re imposing on ourselves. I still hear the charge of ‘scaremongering’ whenever bad news is mentioned. Predictions by various experts in the field are dismissed as wild speculation or things we knew about anyway – so nothing to be disturbed about. The smell of fear and confirmation bias is in the air. But it’s interesting to catch sight of indicators that things are nowhere near as healthy or as normal as some people would want us to believe.]

All details above from BBC News website.

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