The slow moving ‘Brexit Effect’…..

No 'Brexit effect' in latest jobs data.

Economists have said the slight fall in UK unemployment to 1.63 million between May and July shows there is yet to be a "Brexit effect" on the jobs market. The unemployment rate was 4.9%, down from 5.5% a year ago and little changed from last month's rate, Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows. Nearly three quarters of people who can work have jobs, a record high rate. Employment was "resilient" before and after the EU vote, despite predictions of an economic shock, analysts said. Kallum Pickering, an economist at Berenberg, said: "Although it is still early days, the UK labour market is yet to show any Brexit effect for the period immediately before and after the June 23 vote." His analysis of the ONS data showed that unemployment fell to 4.7% in July, the first month since the vote. Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "The UK's labour market proved resilient in the immediate aftermath of the vote to leave the EU, ONS data has shown. This is the latest piece of evidence which shows the economy has fared better than expected since June's referendum." John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, agreed the jobs data showed "no immediate impact from the Brexit vote".

UK retail sales shrug off Brexit vote.

UK retail sales were stronger than expected in August, suggesting consumer confidence has held up in the wake of the Brexit vote. Sales volumes fell by just 0.2% last month, the Office for National Statistics said, while sales were up 6.2% from August last year The ONS said the underlying pattern for the retail sector was "solid growth". "Overall the figures do not suggest any major fall in post-referendum consumer confidence," it said. The sales increase for July was also revised higher from 1.4% to 1.9% - the best performance for the month in 14 years. ING economist James Knightley said the figures offered further evidence that the UK was weathering the short-term effects of the Brexit vote well. "Sterling's fall is likely to have boosted sales of high-end items by foreign tourists as watches and fashions become relatively cheaper for them when bought in the UK versus elsewhere," he added. However, Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the figures had to be treated with some scepticism as surveys from the British Retail Consortium, BDO and Visa all pointed to a much bigger fall in sales volumes. "The chances the official data are revised down therefore seem high," he said.

Brexit: No substantive talks for 12 months, Herman Van Rompuy predicts.

Substantive Brexit talks between the UK and the rest of the EU are unlikely to start much before the end of 2017, a former European Council president says. Speaking to the BBC, Herman Van Rompuy said negotiations were unlikely until a new German government was formed after next September's election. The talks will be tough but hopefully of mutual benefit, he said, adding the UK had to make the "first move". He described the UK's decision to leave the EU as a "political amputation". Meanwhile, leaders of every EU country, apart from the UK, are gathering in the Slovakian capital Bratislava to discuss the future of the bloc. Mr Van Rompuy described the senior figures appointed to negotiate for the EU, who include Belgian ex-Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt and French finance expert Michel Barnier, as "very very tough" but also "very pragmatic". He denied leaders wanted to "punish" the UK for leaving, but said there was a desire not to encourage other countries to follow suit. "Any negotiation will be a difficult negotiation, independent of the personalities. Of course we want an agreement which represents some kind of mutual benefit. There are huge economic interests, but there are also red lines. It is very well known that freedom of movement [of EU nationals] is a red line," he said.

Theresa May could begin Brexit process by February, says Tusk.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May is likely to trigger the formal process of leaving the European Union early next year, according to a top EU official. European Council President Donald Tusk said Mrs May had told him the UK could be ready to begin talks by February. The BBC's Tom Bateman says this is the clearest sign yet of when the two-year withdrawal process may start. Mrs May's office said it would not be launched this year, but did not confirm Mr Tusk's account. Formal negotiations over the withdrawal cannot begin until the UK triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the formal mechanism for leaving the union. The timing of the process has so-far been clouded by uncertainty, with no clear signal from Mrs May's government on when it would begin. There is also confusion over the nature of the UK's future relationship with the bloc, especially whether it intends to remain a member of the single market.

US bankers: 'Brexit impact global'.

US bankers have written to Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew asking him to push for transparent Brexit negotiations in the interests of market stability. They said Brexit "consequences are likely to be significant". Highlighting Britain's role in the global financial system, they warn Brexit could affect jobs in the financial industry and beyond. In a June referendum, the UK voted to leave the EU causing global uncertainty over the fallout of the separation. In their letter, the bankers also said US companies in the UK rely on "passporting rights" between the UK and the remaining EU member states to allow UK-based firms to operate freely across the economic bloc. They added that millions of people in the US are employed by UK and EU companies and called for a "smooth" transition period to give firms time to get used to changes in trade and investment.

All details above from BBC News website.

[Of course the BIG unintended Brexit news here – not counting the rather strangely coy Government response to the Nissan decision to stay in Britain – is the price of tea going up, up, up because of the fall of sterling in recent months. I could feel the tension on the streets as people had to make the decision of cutting back or taking the financial hit in other ways. If the price goes up much further – and who knows what the pound will do post-Article 50? – there could be blood on the streets and the pillaging of tea shops. It could get really nasty out there!]