Oh, to be back in the 1930’s when things were so uncomplicated….……
Maybe I’m reading too much early WW2 history or maybe I’m waiting too much TV news but I’m getting a strong 1930’s vibe right now. I mean we had an economic crash about 10 years ago that the world is still recovering from. We have political upsets across the globe with the rise of popularist leaders of both the Left and the Right (but mostly the Right). The abandonment of generations of understanding and the questioning of the world order itself. Politics itself seems to be polarising wherever you look and growing more acrimonious by the day. Within a few years we might witness to end of NATO, the World Trade Organisation and much else besides. Within a decade we could see the world is a more chaotic and frankly dangerous place than it has been for close to 100 years and that’s without taking into account the increasing impact of Global Warming, resource and habitat depletion and the increasingly problematic migration of peoples across national and international borders.
So is this the 1930’s redux? There’s certainly a lot of similarities I think. But history never actually repeats itself. It might play variations on a well-trodden theme but point for point reference isn’t likely. Saying that Trump or Putin is Hitler and Mussolini in this scenario is beyond simplistic. You just can’t dress up on as the other without a serious amount of cloth cutting. But the vibe…. The vibe is definitely there. Of course the triumph of the Right, just like the much vaunted end of History has been much exaggerated. Just about everyone was surprised (including the man himself probably) when Macron became French President. Whilst not exactly a dyed in the wool Socialist (indeed far from it) France had the opportunity to lurch to the far-Right and chose not to.
So where are things going? It’s probable that there will be more chaos and more surprises ahead. When Britain crashes out of the EU (my prediction) without a deal the shockwaves will circle the world. If Trump does well in the mid-terms (or simply better than anyone expected) and especially if he’s re-elected in 2020 his disruptive agenda will accelerate and with it possibly the end of NATO at least. Whether this forces the EU into closer economic and military co-operation is an open question these days. But alliances will definitely shift. The trade war just starting up between the US and the EU, Canada, Mexico and China will undoubtedly get worse before it gets better. How and when that ends is anyone’s guess. Maybe we’ll have to wait for 2020 for that to be answered. In the meantime there will be hardships and opportunities galore for all involved. I’m better that Brazil will do very well out of it as China switches its purchase of Soy beans away from US producers.
Of course the 1930’s ended in war. Are we heading that way too? I don’t think that war on the European continent is likely unless Russia invades the Baltic States or Poland. I don’t think Russia is that crazy even without (possibly) the US in NATO. The Europeans could give the Russians a serious run for their money in any hot conflict. It’s possible that India and Pakistan might have a ‘go’ at each other (probably over Kashmir) but I think the odds of that spreading – beyond the dangers of radioactive fallout – are remote. An Israel – Iran conflict is possible if Israel are crazy enough to start it. Such a conflict has the real possibility to destabilise the region even more than it is already and might just drag the US in on Israel’s side once things start going badly for them. A bigger problem will be the danger to oil coming out of the Gulf and the resulting economic hit for the rest of the world. Conceivably the US will, in the next few years, withdraw its troops from South Korea leaving that country to defend itself against the (presumably denuclearised) North. A direct confrontation between North and South is, I think, unlikely but an alliance of convenience with Japan might be on the cards just in case – especially if Japan moves ahead with ideas to develop nuclear weapons. The most likely scenario, I think, if the US does withdraw troops is that China will rush to annex Taiwan before anyone can stop it. Will the US go to war with China in the future? Again unlikely I think. You’d have to be a serious betting man (or woman) to say who would come out ahead – if anyone – in such a conflict but the way things are going America would probably be on her own with only ‘moral support’ from the rest of the world and her former allies. Such a war, however short lived, between superpowers across the whole Pacific would be unthinkable and, no doubt, amazingly destructive on both sides. Personally I’m hoping that we jump over the end of the 30’s and go straight to the later 40’s with widespread reconstruction, hope and prosperity on a global level.
5 comments:
interesting points, and somewhat reassuring, except for the us/china thing... i agree history doesn't really repeat itself, but the mindsets do, i think, at least among the seriously polarized political figures...
You're correct that there are a lot of similarities to events in the 30s right now. I can see Russia taking more of the eastern block states without anyone successfully stopping them. I see Russia's electronic sabotage becoming more effect in sowing dissent in people throughout Europe. You can get away with a lot when chaos occurs in the countries of people who could otherwise stop you. I see Trump further isolating the US and China stepping into that gap in both the Pacific, Africa, and Latin America, where they're already spreading their influence unchecked. North Korea is not denuclearizing like they promised (big shock there), but they're held in check by China. If there ever were a conflict between China and the US, I believe it would be electronic warfare, small local skirmishes, because the US would lose a war of attrition with the Chinese. Not a cheery outlook. I know a lot of people who voted for Trump, for whatever reason, are getting hurt by the tariffs. So that should limit his support in the midterms. My bigger worry is nutjobs on the right (InfoWars) stirring up the crazies telling them the liberals are planning to start a Civil War on the 4th of July, and violence erupting. The Right, and likely Trump as well, would love an excuse to implement martial law. We're within days of a Constitutional Crisis because the Trump Administration is ignoring court orders to reunite immigrant children with their families. They say they're complying, but they're not. Only 6 children from the 2500 or so that are being held in detention have been reunited. The Trump Administration is using a different set of numbers for more recent asylum seekers to say they're complying. Also, Trump is now saying immigrants will be housed and guarded on military bases. We have laws that say the military is not to be used domestically for civil issues. That's what the National Guard is for. If the Executive Branch successfully ignores the orders of the Judicial Branch and the Legislative Branch does nothing, then our checks and balances fail, and the three equal branches of government will cease to be and the executive branch will seize power. This is very frightening to me. Meanwhile, Mueller's investigation is still digging. The problem is, that they keep finding more shit and keep digging deeper. Now the implication is that not only did the Trump team collaborate with the Russians, but the NRA helped funnel Russian money to Trump. This is such a horrible time to find one's self in.
@ Mudpuddle: Politics does seem to becoming incredibly polarised these days. There's no longer room simply to disagree. If you disagree you're the enemy - pure and simple. Both weird and dangerous!
@ V V: I've actually been watching a lot (too much actually) US TV on YouTube. After getting over the shock of how different it is I'm starting to really enjoy it. I already have my favourite anchors!
I do hope that the 'Blue Wave' shows up in November. If it doesn't things could get pretty dark for a while. I'm impressed at how quiet the Muller investigation is being. I really hope that they are finding LOTS of dirt - even if it'll do some damage to your political system if it can get rid of Trump. I think the idea of a Civil War is beyond silly. It's FAR more likely that the US will drift into Authoritarianism if no one stands up to the way Trump is governing the country. The tariffs are just plain stupid - especially the thin as paper excuse for them! Not only are you pissing off your allies and helping Russia/China spread their influence but its going to really hurt the US too. Totally daft. Like the commentators I watch I just can't understand why so many people (in the Senate) are either backing Trump or staying quiet. What are they afraid of? We are definitely living in interesting times. You Americans doubly so I'm afraid!
The politicians only care about the next election and pleasing their corporate sponsors. Have you been on Twitter to read the #secondcivilwar letters? I stayed up really late last night reading way too many of the 90,000 responses. American liberals responded to the nonsense about a second civil war with great humor as if they were on the front lines. They are comedy gold! I don’t do Twitter, but managed to find a few sites that reproduced some of the best responses. Some conservatives tried to chime in and make snarky comments back at the liberals, only proving they weren’t as good at humor as the liberals. If you’re able to read some, let me know your favorites.
@ V V: I'm not on Twitter so I haven't seen the 'letters' but I'll try to hunt them down if I can.
There is some hope though with some interesting Democratic nominations coming through. The next 6 months are going to be many things but boring isn't one of them!
Post a Comment