Car Crash Politics

Well, it looks like it’s going to happen. With the recent EU rejection of Teresa May’s much vaunted Chequers Plan coupled with her insistence – despite the opposition of a significant section of her own Party – that it’s the only viable plan for our future and that no other plan will be forthcoming we’re going to be crashing out of the European Union next March. After almost 2 years of negotiation we’re coming down to the wire with 4 weeks (or so) left before the next EU Summit in October with the backstop of an emergency November Summit to ratify any final agreement before it goes to the individual members to agree to (or not).

The PM had, naturally, hoped that the EU leaders would’ve at least thrown her a lifeline to get past the Conservative Conference in just over a week. They didn’t do this saying essentially that her plan wasn’t acceptable (frankly I could have told her that and saved her the embarrassment) and that she’d need to go away and rethink – and make it snappy. Playing to her backbenches and the EU sceptics in her party she came out all growling a tough sounding response about respect presumably in a weak-assed attempt to keep her job. I have a feeling the only reason she’ll probably remain PM after the Conference is that if she’s deposed the Tories will essentially implode.

There is talk, or as I like to characterise it idle chatter, of a second referendum (never going to happen), a vote in Parliament stopping a No-Deal Brexit (unlikely) or even calling another General Election to give Teresa May the authority of the country to drive her deal through – and we all know how well that worked out for her the last time she tried to pull that shit. Presently we’re probably looking at No Deal as the most likely outcome by far. Naturally the Brexiteers (and not only in Parliament) think this is some kind of threat to the EU. A bit like saying to someone if they don’t give us everything we want we’ll sit in a corner and not talk to them until they give in – maybe going as far to hold our breath until we almost pass out. We’re even planning on the possibility of No Deal and stockpiling important medicines and such – although the pro-Leave people label this idea as Project Fear because why would you possibly plan for a bad outcome if leaving the EU will send us immediately into the Promised Land of independence? Of course, with the negotiations moving at a snail’s pace and the amount of red lines on both sides proliferating, the EU has put things in place to reduce the impact on them of us crashing out. I bet you a lot that their preparations are 27 times better than ours. I shudder to think what the pound will do if we do crash out. If the collapse of the pound to historic lows is the only bad thing to happen that’ll be bad enough. Of course that won’t be the only thing to crash next March. There are consequences that everyone knows about, there are even known unknowns that we can probably deal with. What will really kick a great many people in the teeth are the unknown unknowns that no one has given any thought to until we get to the point of someone looking sheepish saying: oh, I didn’t know the EU did THAT!

After the crash I’m guessing, ever the optimist, that there will be about 3 months of chaos and panic before things start getting back to some sort of normality. At that point the reality will kick in. As President Macron said a few days ago the people who said that Brexit would be easy lied to us. The way things are going, barring the kind of miracle I’ve never believed in, we are all going to pay for those lies – big style.