Déjà vu in Parliament

Next week Parliament are going to be allowed to have a ‘meaningful vote’ on Brexit. Of course we’ve been here before and it didn’t go so well for Teresa May but at least it made the history books with the worst defeat of a standing government since the 18th century.

There are, if it goes ahead (remembering the time that a promised meaningful vote was pulled at the last minute because the Tories *knew* that they were going to lose it), three votes on the 12th, 13th and 14th March – yes, that TWO weeks before the scripted departure from the EU. The first vote on the 12th is on Teresa’s ‘new’ deal which is essentially the same as the old deal (that of the historic defeat) which everyone is expecting the government to lose despite the threats and poorly executed bribery they’ve been spraying around the place. So, no deal is expected on the 12th. The second vote is on the no-deal scenario. Smart money (and I agree with them) suggests that no deal will be rejected by Parliament as a viable option. It’s just by how many votes that’s up for debate. The last vote on the 14th will be about extending Article 50 past the 29th March date. My guess is that this will fail for a number of reasons although I’m guessing that it might be close (less than 50 votes maybe?). One of the problems is that European Elections are coming up in June so it’d be kind of embarrassing (and pointless) to have the opportunity to elect people to an organisation you’re trying very hard to leave.

Inevitably the voting would be another referendum in all but name. However the kicker is that any extension (with just two weeks to go remember) would have to be agreed by the EU 27 nations and they’ve already said that they would extend the Article 50 deadline ONLY if there was a good reason to do so – like us having time to pass laws and such. Giving us more time to argue and squabble is not, according to the EU a ‘good reason’. So, as long predicted by myself on March 29th we will crash out of the EU without any deal.

So, what happens then? I think that after the Tuesday vote is lost the present slow undercurrent of prepping for a no-deal scenario will break out into an increased level of panic buying. I’m expecting there to be an increase in empty shelves at supermarkets and even talk of unofficial rationing. There will also be (undoubtedly) a sudden increase in heated rhetoric in the blame game – most of it aimed at the EU for not giving us what we wanted and at the Labour Party for not being Teresa’s backing group at all times. That will go on with increasing volume right up to the moment the country drives itself off a cliff. Then what? Well, here’s what won’t happen: It won’t be the End of the World. There won’t be riots and the Army will not be on the streets. Contingency plans (mostly admittedly half-baked and ill-prepared) will go into effect. It will not be like The Blitz or just after Dunkirk when we expected (wrongly) to be invaded at any minute. But what will happen?

Inevitably there will be a breakdown in the supply chain as customs services on both sides of the English Channel get fully up to speed. That’ll take somewhere around 2-4 weeks. For that time there will be shortages of something exacerbated by panic buying. After the initial chaos things will start settling down. Supplies will be getting through and the initial panic will subside. But some things – like cut flowers for example – will take much longer to recover. Inevitably prices on probably all goods will increase from a few percent to over twenty percent depending on the product. It wouldn’t surprise me at all (sadly) if hate-crime against anyone with a foreign accent increases at this time. That too will settle down but I’m guessing that the level it returns to will be higher than before.

Longer term we will lose jobs and manufacturing capacity. This is already starting to happen with companies either moving or actively talking about moving jobs and factories out of the UK. It’s always been obvious that this will happen despite the lies (it’s difficult calling them anything less) from Brexiteers. It’s simple economics. If there’s an EU tariff on a product that is hurting sales and it can be eliminated by moving a factory inside the EU that’s exactly what will happen. It won’t happen overnight but any new investment simply won’t be happening here. In 10 years I imagine that most of the foreign car manufacturers will only have the runts of their global empires based here for purely domestic consumption. Naturally we’ll get back on our feet whatever happens. But Britain’s economic future won’t exactly be bright for the next 10-25 years, not unless something very unexpected happens. I’m not exactly holding my breath on that one. But you never can tell. Teresa might win her vote on Tuesday against all of the odds and negative predictions – which will mean two years in that half-way house of being outside the EU but still inside the Customs Union and Single Market. How THAT works out is, as with so many other things, ANYONE’S guess.