Just Finished Reading: Life’s Grandeur – The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin by Stephen Jay Gould (FP: 1991) [230pp]

I tried reading this some years back and failed miserably. Part of the reason for DNFing it back then was that I quickly discovered it wasn’t the book I thought it was. I actually have no clear recollection of *what* I thought it would be but it wasn’t that. The other issue was my confusion about Baseball.

The first section – which is, I think, one reason why I didn’t get too far into this slim volume – is called: A Baseball Primer for British Readers. Not being a sport person in general and having no knowledge (or interest) in Baseball I pretty much baulked at that point. But on my 2^nd attempt I actually found the baseball bit to be at least readable. I was more than a little curious where the author was going to go with this so read on…. SJG is not only a self-confessed Baseball fan but, like so many other fans, he’s a stats freak too. Of course he’s also a scientist whose oeuvre is Evolution. So, what’s the connection? One of the questions that SJG gets a lot is about complexity and the seemingly purposeful direction of Evolution over the eons of producing more of it. Complexity is, it seems, a good thing and is being actively selected for. The ‘direction’ of Evolution is, again it seems, for steadily increasing complexity – ending up with, ‘naturally’, US! Which means that human level complexity was pretty much inevitable – right? Nonsense, says SJG, and here’s why – BASEBALL.

Apparently (although this had definitely passed me by), there is MUCH debate in the world of Baseball statisticians about the demise of the 0.400 batting average. Personally I’d never heard of it but I was willing to be educated on the point. This proved to be unexpectedly fascinating. It seems that in the early decades of baseball it wasn’t completely unknown for exceptional (and not always exceptional) players to break 0.400 in any given season. [Side note: I was impressed by how many famous baseball players mentioned in the book were familiar to me – at least by name] However, in modern times such a score has become little more than a nostalgic twinkling in even the best batters eyes. Why? Without going into too much (and surprisingly fascinating) details it’s all about skewed distribution curves. Standard distribution curves it seems do not stand in naked isolation divorced from reality. Not only can they be skewed left or right they can come up against walls at either end. The seeming death of the 0.400 batting average is a result of a right hand wall reflecting the limits of human excellence – in batting, fielding and much else besides. This is not unlike achievements in other sports which begin with records broken seemingly every day and then after months, years or decades until you get to a point where previous records broken by minutes are sliced down to tenths of a second. Once you hit the right wall the only way to go is backwards. But what does this have to do with the evolution of complexity.

It seems natural, looking out at the world, that biological complexity is everywhere and everywhere it is dominant. Looking from our perspective, looking back down the evolutionary and fossil record, our signature hubris sees countless pieces of evidence for increase complexity over time culminating in the very species looking back in time. What could be more satisfying? Except, as SJG explains brilliantly, it’s simply not true. For one thing we forget that the VAST majority of Earth’s history has been dominated by the humble bacteria. Worse, even today it’s estimated that the VAST majority of life on Earth – however you cut it – is still very much bacterial. Being relatively simple creatures it’s understandably difficult to produce anything significantly LESS complex. Which means that bacteria are pretty snuggly against the far left wall. The ONLY way to go on the drunkard’s walk of random mutation in increased complexity. Once more complex creatures randomly appear there will be, again through random mutation, a slow creep towards the right side of the graph – increasing complexity – as part of the natural process. Most of the mutations will stay around the centre of the distribution curve, some (where possible) will become less complex and some will become more complex. No plan, no direction, no inevitability of humanity. Just the random drunkard’s walk of mutation and natural selection at work.

Although it did take a little effort (being a Brit!) getting into the whole Baseball themed metaphor I did find both it and the description of how Evolution produces a thin rightward ‘tail’ of complexity compelling and elegant. It’s reassuringly easy to see direction or a plan in the apparent chaos of Evolution and take comfort from it. Such is, unfortunately, a kind warm illusion that, as SJG explains, is actually nothing of the sort. Overall a VERY interesting read. The only downside is that now I’ve become interested in the history of Baseball and have already added a few books to my Wish List!