Just Finished Reading: How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them by Barbara F Walter (FP: 2022) [226pp] 

War is Hell, but Civil War takes it to a whole other level. Civil War is NASTY. Part of that is the belief – often by both sides – that the conflict is absolutely existential. Either they win or they are destroyed rather than ‘merely’ defeated. If they lose – they're DONE. But why do they happen in the first place? Some places have had multiple civil wars over the generations, whilst others have had few, only one or missed out completely. Why? This is the authors area of expertise. 

Interestingly civil wars have patterns. If you study them long enough and use enough examples from different cultures and across the century's patterns begin to emerge. With each stage passed or with each item checked off a list the odds of a country falling into civil war increases. It’s one way, or one metric, to assess foreign nations – to look at their stability, their reliability as allies or trading partners, their vulnerability to destabilisation by enemies and their future prospects. What the author found, much to her surprise, is that the same process, the same metrics, the same checklist, can be applied to her own country – the US - too.  

About 2/3rds of this often fascinating read looks at civil wars throughout the world, from Spain to Ireland, from post-revolutionary Russia to the breakup of Czechoslovakia after the collapse of the Soviet Union pointing out patterns, showing how the process moves from stage to stage until civil conflict breaks out. Although unique elements naturally exist there is a clear evolution being followed here – which, of course, gives those who want to prevent the descent into war an opportunity to break the chain of events and disrupt the process. This is what the author outlines in the final chapters of the book. 

There has, as we know, been much talk, indeed much heated rhetoric, about the possibility of a 2nd civil war in the US (so much so they made a film about it which is actually rather good). Even though I think that the odds of such a thing – at least in the sense of actual battles between competing armies – is rather low (although not zero) there remains the somewhat higher probability of increased low-intensity conflict between the increasingly polarised sides in the present ‘culture war’. Several significant lines have already been crossed, and it is not inconceivable that the remaining lines between the present political posturing and an exchange of more than words could happen in the months/years ahead. If one side or the other losses hope than change – or mere survival – is not possible without violence to defend their position, well, all bets are off at that point. We’re not there yet – and we’re probably still a long way from that point, but as far as I can tell from this side of the pond the momentum is continuing in that direction. If I was a betting person, which I’m not, I’d put the potential tipping point (all other things being equal) in 2026 with the mid-terms or, more likely I think, with the 2028 election. Either way the next 3-5 years are going to be turbulent to say the least! 

I think the most important aspect of this interesting read was the way it highlighted the dangers – no ‘It can’t Happen Here’ head in the sand between these pages – without either salivating at the prospect or losing hope that such a thing is either inevitable or unavoidable because it isn’t. The progress towards or retreat from civil war can be both observed and opposed to ensure it doesn’t happen here. This book will help you to understand why civil wars happen and also give you some tools and some idea of what to do to avoid them. Definitely recommended in these ‘interesting’ times.