Welcome to the thoughts that wash up on the sandy beaches on my mind. Paddling is encouraged.. but watch out for the sharks.
About Me
- CyberKitten
- I have a burning need to know stuff and I love asking awkward questions.
Thursday, May 31, 2012
Just Finished Reading : The Golden City
by John Twelve Hawks
In a near future world frighteningly similar to our own two
shadowy organisations fight each other over the fate of mankind. The Brethren
are dedicated to control through fear, manipulation and constant surveillance,
The Travellers and their diverse followers believe in human potential, freedom
and choice. Each side seek allies and information on other planes of existence
through the activities of brothers Michael and Gabriel who have the ability to
leave their bodies at will to travel along well worn paths to worlds out of
myth. Now Michael is becoming frustrated at the pace of which his organisation
is gaining control over the minds of millions. Convincing the higher echelons
of The Brethren that he has the answer to the problems of accelerating control
he causes a series of events across the world designed to generate fear and
panic. When the time is right they will come out of the shadows to offer their
solution to all our fears – a global surveillance system designed to keep us
safe. The few remaining travellers know that this is an opportunity to strike
back – but can such a diverse group pull together and co-ordinate a global
response of its own? Only Gabriel can provide the impetus but his abandoned
body lies awaiting the return of his travelling spirit which might very well be
trapped in Hell itself.
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Monday, May 28, 2012
Just Finished Reading :
The Lady Elizabeth by Alison Weir
This, my second Weir novel, covered similar ground to
Innocent Traitor I read some time ago. Indeed both Lady Elizabeth and Lady Jane
Grey appear in both novels but with the focus reversed. Weir draws a very
enticing picture of Elizabeth – arguably our greatest monarch – as a very
bright, very astute and sometimes very lucky young woman. Of course setting up
the novel as a ‘fight for survival’ has an inevitable problem – we know she
survives to become queen (I’m really not giving anything away here). But the
far more interesting part is exactly how she survives the intrigue going on all
around her. If the fictionalisation of her early years – until she is crowned
at age 25 – is as close to the truth as the author maintains (though admittedly
with fictional additions, conflations and speculations) then it is a wonder
that she made it that far. What a different world that would have been.
Arguably without Elizabeth England may have become just another part of the
growing Spanish Empire rather than the author of its downfall and after that….
Who knows!
Sunday, May 27, 2012
Saturday, May 26, 2012
Mars 'has life's building blocks'
By Mark Mardell for BBC News
25 May 2012
New evidence from meteorites suggests that the basic
building blocks of life are present on Mars. The study found that carbon
present in 10 meteorites, spanning more than four billion years of Martian
history, came from the planet and was not the result of contamination on Earth.
Details of the work have been published in the journal Science. But the
research also shows the Martian carbon did not come from life forms. A team of scientists
based at the Carnegie Institution for Science, based in Washington
DC , found "reduced
carbon" in the meteorites and says it was created by volcanic activity on Mars.
They argue this is evidence "that Mars has been
undertaking organic chemistry for most of its history." The team's leader
Dr Andrew Steele told BBC News: "For about the last 40 years we have been
looking for a pool of what is called 'reduced carbon' on Mars, trying to find
where it is, if it's there, asking "does it exist?" "Without
carbon, the building blocks of life cannot exist... So it is reduced carbon
that, with hydrogen, with oxygen, with nitrogen make up the organic molecules
of life."
He says the new analysis has answered the first question.
"This research shows, yes - it does exist on Mars and now we are moving to
the next set of questions. What happened to it, what was its fate, did it take
the next step of creating life on Mars?" He hopes the next mission to land on the Red Planet - the
Mars Science Laboratory, also known as the "Curiosity" rover - will
shed more light on the big question. "The question 'are we alone' has been
a big driver of science but it relates back to our own origins on this planet.
If there is no life on Mars why? It allows us to make a more informed
hypothesis about why life is here." So does Dr Steele think there was, or
is, life on Mars?
He laughs: "Get me some rocks back, I'll have a look
and let you know.”
[Of course it’s quite possible that despite the organic
building blocks for life being present on the early Mars it never actually led
anywhere. But we must remember that Mars had a wet past not unlike Earth. With
organic chemicals in liquid solution present for an unknown time it might have
been possible for simple life to have emerged before Mars lost most of its
atmosphere and surface water. Knowing how tough life can be – just think of
Earths extremophiles - it’s entirely
reasonable to speculate that life on Mars may have migrated underground along
with the water it needed to survive. As we have literally only scratched the
surface of the Red Planet I think that’s where the search for life should be
focused. I have high hopes that we’ll find something amazing.]
Friday, May 25, 2012
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Just Finished Reading :
Ancient Warfare – A Very Short Introduction by Harry Sidebottom
I’ve been toying recently with the idea of doing another
Masters Degree as my brain seems (at least sometimes) to be turning into mush.
I’m almost more than a little fed up and think that’s because I’m not getting
enough mental stimulation. I didn’t want to do anything I’ve done or touched on
before so when I found a course on Ancient and Medieval Warfare at a nearby
University it seemed idea. At the moment I’m still thinking about it – and will
probably put it off until 2013 – but the course seems different enough that it
could be quite fun even taking into account that I’d need to learn some Latin.
This book then looked like an ideal introduction but turned out to be something
I hadn’t really expected.
What I had expected was a potted history of the Ancient
world with discussions of tactics and technology – The Greek phalanx and the
Roman Gladus for example – with side debates on various pivotal battles like Thermopylae . Doing justice to this subject in a mere 128
pages would be difficult, I thought, but do-able. What I found was completely
different. Instead of discussing things from the ground up the book took a far
more top down approach. The author posed the question: Did the Greek and Roman
civilisations create and develop a distinctive ‘Western Way of War’ in contrast to their
many enemies and are we living with that legacy today. What hooked me from the
start was the down to earth – and fun – approach to the subject. Not only does
the author know his stuff, which you should expect from someone who teaches in Oxford , but he’s
confident enough to play with his knowledge in order to engage his audience but
without talking down to them or appearing in anyway condescending. I actually
laughed as I read the first page which described the opening battle portrayed
in the movie Gladiator when the Roman legions faced down the German barbarians.
It seems true, the author starts, but in fact it was far from the truth. The Western Way of War
was, he maintained, a cultural construct and like other cultural constructs had
an origin, was based on how we see ourselves and how we want others to see us
and, importantly, changes over time as cultures themselves change.
Throughout the rest of the book – using examples from both
the Greek and Roman world – the author expands on his thesis by delving into
how the ancients viewed war, what myths and stories about themselves they
responded to (or against) and explodes a fair few myths about the way wars were
fought and the reasons for going to war in the first place. It certainly gave
me a flavour of what I might be up against in a future seminar and certainly
gave me a lot to think about.
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Monday, May 21, 2012
Just Finished Reading :
The New Atheism – Taking a Stand for Science and Reason by Victor J Stenger
I actually don’t read much atheist literature. This may seem
odd to some of my regulars as they know me as a life-long and often outspoken
atheist. In the not too distant past I’d spend a significant part of my
blogging time debating the existence of God with a number of people on both
sides of the divide. I enjoyed it too until I realised that I was completely
wasting my time. For one thing it became obvious that my theist opponents could
not be swayed or persuaded by arguments – presumably because they didn’t become
Christians through the arguments presented to them. Our world views were just
too different and it felt, more than once, that we were talking in completely
different languages despite the fact that they sounded the same and seemingly
used the same words.
Just like those earlier debates I found this book to be
largely pointless. For one thing the author was preaching very much to the
choir. I for one certainly don’t need my atheism explained to me or my
arguments for it bolstered. I have given the subject a great deal of thought
over the years and have arrived at what I consider to be a well reasoned
position that I am more than happy with – so much so that I no longer give it
much thought at all. This book is very definitely aimed at an American audience
– which came as no great surprise to me. The battle the author is clearly
taking part in is very much an American affair. Europe ,
I believe, moved on from this debate decades ago. The few books written by
British authors – notably Dawkins and Hitchens – are similarly and squarely
aimed at the US
market. Despite the fact that their books sold well over here I believe that
was prompted more by curiosity than by actual soul-searching.
Despite the fact that I agreed with virtually every word in
this book (and because of that becoming increasingly bored with the whole
thing) I became increasingly irritated with the authors attitude to his critics
and those believers who had either failed to understand his position or where
actively hostile to it. I agree with the author that the religious beliefs
under discussion are foolish and without foundation. But it does not follow
that the people who hold those beliefs are irredeemable fools. Unfortunately
this seemed to be the attitude of the author which is rather self-defeating
when you consider it. Anyone ‘of-faith’ reading this book would immediately
take umbrage with the tone of the work and because of that completely miss the
actual content which, despite the fact that I’ve heard it all before, was
pretty good and generally well argued (if rather ‘thin’, that is without any
real depth). Treating at least part of your target audience as complete idiots
is not really conducive to getting them to actually consider your arguments at
face value. This doesn’t mean that you have to bend over backwards to
accommodate your opponents. You just have to treat them as, at least
potentially, reasonable human beings and pitch your arguments accordingly. This
the book singularly fails to do starting as it does from a position that
Atheism is the obviously correct way of seeing the world (I agree) which needs
little further exposition (which it does to those with radically different
world views).
Finally it seems that the author is another of those
Atheists who want their cake and eat it. A whole chapter was given over – plus
references elsewhere – to a secular form of spirituality that can be gleaned
from various Eastern religions and especially from Buddhism. Now I’m as
interested in that sort of thing as much as the next Atheist but I don’t need
it as a faux substitute for religion that the author seems to suggest it can be
used as. I’ve come across the idea before that we, being without God, need to
bolt on some kind of sanitised religious feelings (not called religious of
course!) in order to feel complete rather than at the mercy of an indifferent
and purely materialistic universe. I for one reject that cop-out of an idea. It’s
like calling yourself a vegetarian and still eating fish or even chicken and
thinking it’s OK as long as you don’t actually eat red meat. People like that
amuse me to death – they really do.
Sunday, May 20, 2012
Saturday, May 19, 2012
I have the feeling, that like much over-the-counter medication, its effectiveness would be questionable....
NASA'S KEPLER MISSION DISCOVERS ITS
FIRST ROCKY PLANET
From NASA
Jan. 10, 2011
The discovery of this
so-called exoplanet is based on more than eight months of data collected by the
spacecraft from May 2009 to early January 2010. "All of Kepler's best
capabilities have converged to yield the first solid evidence of a rocky planet
orbiting a star other than our sun," said Natalie Batalha, Kepler's deputy
science team lead at NASA's Ames Research Center
in Moffett Field , Calif. , and primary author of a paper on the
discovery accepted by the Astrophysical Journal. "The Kepler team made a
commitment in 2010 about finding the telltale signatures of small planets in
the data, and it's beginning to pay off."
Kepler's ultra-precise
photometer measures the tiny decrease in a star's brightness that occurs when a
planet crosses in front of it. The size of the planet can
be derived from these periodic dips in brightness. The distance between the
planet and the star is calculated by measuring the time between successive dips
as the planet orbits the star. Kepler is the first NASA mission capable of
finding Earth-size planets in or near the habitable zone, the region in a
planetary system where liquid water can exist on the planet's surface. However,
since it orbits once every 0.84 days, Kepler-10b is more than 20 times closer
to its star than Mercury is to our sun and not in the habitable zone.
Kepler-10 was the first star
identified that could potentially harbor a small transiting planet, placing it
at the top of the list for ground-based observations with the W.M. Keck
Observatory 10-meter telescope in Hawaii .
Scientists waiting for a signal to confirm Kepler-10b as a planet were not
disappointed. Keck was able to measure tiny changes in the star's spectrum,
called Doppler shifts, caused by the telltale tug exerted by the orbiting
planet on the star.
"The discovery of
Kepler 10-b is a significant milestone in the search for planets similar to our
own," said Douglas Hudgins, Kepler program scientist at NASA Headquarters
in Washington .
"Although this planet is not in the habitable zone, the exciting find
showcases the kinds of discoveries made possible by the mission and the promise
of many more to come," he said. Knowledge of the planet is only as good as
the knowledge of the star it orbits. Because Kepler-10 is one of the brighter
stars being targeted by Kepler, scientists were able to detect high frequency
variations in the star's brightness generated by stellar oscillations, or
starquakes. This analysis allowed scientists to pin down Kepler-10b's properties.
There is a clear signal in
the data arising from light waves that travel within the interior of the star.
Kepler Asteroseismic Science Consortium scientists use the information to
better understand the star, just as earthquakes are used to learn about Earth's
interior structure. As a result of this analysis, Kepler-10 is one of the most
well characterized planet-hosting stars in the universe. That's good news for
the team studying Kepler-10b. Accurate stellar properties yield accurate planet
properties. In the case of Kepler-10b, the picture that emerges is of a rocky
planet with a mass 4.6 times that of Earth and with an average density of 8.8
grams per cubic centimeter -- similar to that of an iron dumbbell.
[Just in case you missed the
original announcement! Of course the discovery of rocky planets like Earth is a
big step towards finding life elsewhere in our Galaxy. If these planets are as
common as they appear to be I think the odds of finding life – even complex
life – are pretty good. What we have is still pretty circumstantial but as more
evidence accumulates of the possibility of life elsewhere – especially in
environments not that dissimilar to those here – that possibility must be
moving in the direction of certainty. Now all we need to do is determine which
of the present candidates are the most likely to harbour life and send probes
to have a look – no matter how long that would take.]
Friday, May 18, 2012
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Just Finished Reading :
The Occupation by Guy Walters
[Oh, and that was my 3000th post.......]
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Monday, May 14, 2012
A Dummies Guide to the Global Economy:
Helga
is the proprietor of a bar.
She
realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her
bar. To solve this problem, she comes up with a
new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink
now, but pay later. Helga keeps track of the
drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers'
loans).
Word
gets around about Helga's "drink now, pay later" marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers
flood into Helga's bar. Soon she has the
largest sales volume for any bar in town. By
providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Helga gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she
substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most
consumed beverages. Consequently, Helga's gross
sales volume increases massively.
A
young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and
increases Helga's borrowing limit. He sees no
reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts
of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral!!! At the bank's corporate
headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge
commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS.
These
"securities" then are bundled and traded on international securities markets. Naive investors don't really understand
that the securities being sold to them as
"AA" "Secured Bonds" really are debts of unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, the bond prices
continuously climb and the securities soon
become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.
One
day, even though the bond prices still are climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has
come to demand payment on the debts incurred by
the drinkers at Helga's bar. He so informs Helga. Helga
then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being unemployed alcoholics they cannot pay back their drinking
debts.
Since
Helga cannot fulfil her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and Helga's 11 employees
lose their jobs. Overnight, DRINKBOND prices
drop by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys
the bank's liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the
community. The suppliers of Helga's bar had
granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the BOND securities. They find they
are now faced with having to write off her bad
debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed
value of the bonds.
Her
wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, her
beer supplier is taken over by a competitor,
who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150
workers. Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a
multibillion dollar no-strings attached cash
infusion from the government.
The
funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who've never
been in Helga's bar.
Now
do you understand?
[From
an e-mail doing the rounds at the moment].
Sunday, May 13, 2012
Saturday, May 12, 2012
World War II fighter found in Egyptian desert
By Nick Higham
BBC News
11 May 2012
A World War II RAF fighter, which crash-landed in a remote
part of the Egyptian desert in 1942, has been discovered almost intact. There was
no trace of the pilot, Flt Sgt Dennis Copping, but the British embassy says it
is planning to mount a search for his remains. The RAF
Museum in Hendon, north London , says it is hoping
to recover the plane as soon as possible. There are fears souvenir hunters will
start stripping it.
The 24-year-old pilot, the son of a dentist from Southend in
Essex, went missing over the Western
Desert in June 1942,
flying an American-made P40 Kittyhawk single-engine fighter. Two-and-a-half
months ago an aircraft believed to be his was discovered near a remote place
called Wadi al-Jadid by a Polish oil worker, Jakub Perka. His photographs show
the plane is in remarkably good condition, though the engine and propeller have separated from the fuselage. The
original paintwork and RAF insignia are said to be clearly visible, almost
perfectly preserved in the dry desert air. But of the pilot there is no sign.
He appears to have executed a near-perfect emergency landing, perhaps after becoming lost and running
out of fuel, and to have survived the crash. He rigged a parachute as an awning
and removed the aircraft's radio and batteries but then apparently walked off
into the desert in search of help.
Almost 100 miles from the nearest settlement, he stood
virtually no chance. David Keen, an aviation historian at the RAF Museum ,
says the pilot broke the first rule of survival in the desert, which is to stay
with your plane or vehicle. But the very same conditions which made the pilot's
prospects so bleak have helped preserve the plane. Mr Keen says of the many thousands of aircraft which were
shot down or crashed during the Second World War, very few survive in anything
like this condition. He said: "Nearly all the crashes in the Second World
War, and there were tens of thousands of them, resulted on impact with the
aircraft breaking up, so the only bits that are recovered are fragments, often
scattered over a wide area. "What makes this particular aircraft so
special is that it looks complete, and it survived on the surface of the desert
all these years. It's like a timewarp." The RAF Museum
has a P40 Kittyhawk on display, but it has been put together from parts of many
different aircraft. Recovering Flt Sgt Copping's plane will not be easy. It is
in a part of the desert which is not only remote but also dangerous, because it
is close to a smuggling route between Libya
and Egypt .
The defence attache at the British Embassy in Cairo , Paul Collins, says he is hoping to
travel to the area in the near future, but is waiting for permission from the
Egyptian army. He told the BBC: "I have to go down there. This is a
serviceman who was killed, albeit 70 years ago. We have a responsibility to go
and find out whether it's his plane, though not necessarily to work out what
happened. "He went missing in action. We can only assume he got out and
walked somewhere, so we have to do a search of the area for any remains,
although it could be a wide area. "But we have to go soon as all the
souvenir hunters will be down there," said Mr Collins. He said the British
authorities are trying to find out whether Flt Sgt Copping has any surviving
close relatives, because if his remains are found a decision will need to be
made about what to do with them.
[It’s amazing to think that such things as this can stay
hidden for over 60 years and then be stumbled upon in the deep desert. There’s
also the very human story of a pilot crash landing his plane and then, after
waiting for a rescue that never arrived, walking off into the desert in the
hope of finding his way home.]
Friday, May 11, 2012
Thursday, May 10, 2012
Just Finished Reading :
Terminator and Philosophy – I’ll be Back, therefore I Am edited by Richard
Brown and Kevin S Decker
I am, as most of you will know, a huge fan of the Terminator
‘franchise’ of movies and TV series. So it will come as no surprise that I
jumped at the opportunity to read about some of the ideas behind James
Cameron’s original ideas and their offspring. Of course many of these ideas are
deeply philosophical – if not exactly anything particularly original. The most
obvious point brought up in the movies is about machine intelligence. As Reese
explain in the first movie regarding Skynet – “They say it got smart, a new
order of intelligence and decided our future in a micro-second” – or words to
that effect. So there are several articles about that aspect. My particular
favourite however are those dealing with the other major aspect: Time travel
and the possibility of changing the past (or the future) which, quite
naturally, leads on to discussions of fate and free will. Some of the temporal
mechanics is rather mind-bending and I did have to slow things down and read a
few passages more than once – but it all made sense in the end. The two things
to remember of course is that ‘Judgement Day is inevitable’ – though it can
seemingly be delayed – and no matter how many killer robots (or protectors) you
send back you can’t seem to change things very much or for very long. Tagged on
to all this is the obvious question of where exactly are these Terminators
coming from? Does that mean that the future already exists in some form or
other? Surely it must if the cyborgs live there, right? Also, rather than
repeatedly failing to stop its own destruction at the hands of humanity, does
Skynet merely create other worlds and other timelines where different versions
of itself sends back robots into our world? As John Conner said in the last
movie: ‘This isn’t the future my mother warned me about’. Is that because of
the meddling of Skynet (and the Resistance) in The Sarah Conner Chronicles?
I do love thinking about all this sort of thing. If you are
as sad as me in that respect then this book is most definitely you. If you read
it carefully you might even find out why we cry (cringe worthy moment par
excellence!) Highly recommended but, be warned, it might make you watch all
four films back-to-back like I did last weekend……..
Wednesday, May 09, 2012
Tuesday, May 08, 2012
Monday, May 07, 2012
Just Finished Reading :
Set in Stone by Robert Goddard
In order to help Tony Sheridan start to cope with the
sudden, tragic and mysterious death of his wife he is invited to stay with his
sister-in-law and her husband in their new house, Otherways. Designed and built
before the First World War the house is a one-off experiment of a radical
architect who never had another design commissioned. Entirely circular and
surrounded by a moat it almost defies description seemingly changing aspects of
itself depending on the viewer. As Tony starts to settle into his new
surroundings and put his life slowly back together he starts having vivid
dreams about his sister-in-law, so like and yet so unlike his beloved wife. As
he digs deeper into the history of the house he finds that incidents seem to be
repeating themselves and not for the first time. Since its construction
Otherways has been at the heart of betrayal, treason and murder. Will Tony
become its latest victim or can he find out what is going on before he loses more
than a few nights sleep….
This is a really difficult book to categorise – as you can
tell from the labels I used: Fantasy, Espionage and Crime. It certainly
contains all three genres – the house is like something from a horror movie,
though much more subtle than most. There is a brooding malevolent presence
about the place that is generally spooky. At the core of the novel is an act of
betrayal when secrets are passed to the Soviet Union
and lives are ruined in consequence. Lastly there is murder, infidelity,
suicide and threats of savage violence. With so much going on – and so many
genres seemingly being thrown into the mix – it would have been very easy for
the author to have produced a muddled thriller that failed on each count.
Surprisingly, and rather gratifyingly, he managed to hold things together to
produced a decidedly odd but most definitely gripping thriller which I
described to a work colleague as having more twists than a twisty thing. I can
most definitely say that this is a solid page turner having finished it several
days ahead of schedule after reading in excess of 150 pages on a single day.
That alone is quite a recommendation. The narrative pulls the reader through
seemingly without effort and before you know it whole chapters – and hours –
have flown past. This is my second Goddard book and it will most definitely not
be my last. Highly recommended for anyone wanting something more than a little
out of the ordinary.
Saturday, May 05, 2012
As ice cap melts, militaries
vie for Arctic edge
From ERIC TALMADGE
Associated Press
Monday April 16 2012
To the world's military leaders, the debate over climate
change is long over. They are preparing for a new kind of Cold War in the Arctic , anticipating that rising temperatures there will
open up a treasure trove of resources, long-dreamed-of sea lanes and a slew of
potential conflicts. By Arctic standards, the region is already buzzing with
military activity, and experts believe that will increase significantly in the
years ahead. Last month, Norway
wrapped up one of the largest Arctic maneuvers ever — Exercise Cold Response —
with 16,300 troops from 14 countries training on the ice for everything from
high intensity warfare to terror threats. Attesting to the harsh conditions,
five Norwegian troops were killed when their C-130 Hercules aircraft crashed
near the summit of Kebnekaise ,
Sweden 's
highest mountain.
The U.S. ,
Canada and Denmark held major exercises two months ago, and
in an unprecedented move, the military chiefs of the eight main Arctic powers —
Canada , the U.S. , Russia ,
Iceland , Denmark , Sweden ,
Norway and Finland — gathered at a Canadian
military base last week to specifically discuss regional security issues. None of this means a shooting war is likely at the North
Pole any time soon. But as the number of workers and ships increases in the
High North to exploit oil and gas reserves, so will the need for policing,
border patrols and — if push comes to shove — military muscle to enforce rival
claims. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that 13 percent of the world's
undiscovered oil and 30 percent of its untapped natural gas is in the Arctic . Shipping lanes could be regularly open across the
Arctic by 2030 as rising temperatures continue
to melt the sea ice, according to a National Research Council analysis
commissioned by the U.S. Navy last year.
What countries should do about climate change remains a
heated political debate. But that has not stopped north-looking militaries from
moving ahead with strategies that assume current trends will continue. Russia , Canada
and the United States have
the biggest stakes in the Arctic . With its
military budget stretched thin by Iraq ,
Afghanistan and more
pressing issues elsewhere, the United
States has been something of a reluctant
northern power, though its nuclear-powered submarine fleet, which can navigate
for months underwater and below the ice cap, remains second to none. Russia —
one-third of which lies within the Arctic Circle — has been the most aggressive
in establishing itself as the emerging region's superpower.
Rob Huebert, an associate political science professor at the
University of Calgary
in Canada , said Russia has recovered enough from its economic
troubles of the 1990s to significantly rebuild its Arctic military
capabilities, which were a key to the overall Cold War strategy of the Soviet Union , and has increased its bomber patrols and
submarine activity. He said that has in turn led other Arctic countries — Norway , Denmark
and Canada
— to resume regional military exercises that they had abandoned or cut back on
after the Soviet collapse. Even non-Arctic nations such as France have expressed interest in deploying
their militaries to the Arctic . "We have an entire ocean region that had previously
been closed to the world now opening up," Huebert said. "There are
numerous factors now coming together that are mutually reinforcing themselves,
causing a buildup of military capabilities in the region. This is only going to
increase as time goes on."
Noting that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest
of the globe, the U.S. Navy in 2009 announced a beefed-up Arctic Roadmap by its
own task force on climate change that called for a three-stage strategy to
increase readiness, build cooperative relations with Arctic nations and
identify areas of potential conflict.
"We want to maintain our edge up there," said
Cmdr. Ian Johnson, the captain of the USS Connecticut, which is one of the U.S.
Navy's most Arctic-capable nuclear submarines and was deployed to the North
Pole last year. "Our interest in the Arctic
has never really waned. It remains very important." But the U.S. remains
ill-equipped for large-scale Arctic missions, according to a simulation
conducted by the U.S. Naval War College. A summary released last month found
the Navy is "inadequately prepared to conduct sustained maritime
operations in the Arctic " because it
lacks ships able to operate in or near Arctic ice, support facilities and
adequate communications. "The findings indicate the Navy is entering a new
realm in the Arctic," said Walter Berbrick, a War College
professor who participated in the simulation. "Instead of other nations
relying on the U.S. Navy for capabilities and resources, sustained operations
in the Arctic region will require the Navy to rely on other nations for
capabilities and resources." He added that although the U.S. nuclear
submarine fleet is a major asset, the Navy has severe gaps elsewhere — it
doesn't have any icebreakers, for example. The only one in operation belongs to
the Coast Guard. The U.S.
is currently mulling whether to add more icebreakers.
Acknowledging the need to keep apace in the Arctic, the United States
is pouring funds into figuring out what climate change will bring, and has been
working closely with the scientific community to calibrate its response. "The
Navy seems to be very on board regarding the reality of climate change and the
especially large changes we are seeing in the Arctic," said Mark C.
Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the Cooperative Institute for
Research in Environmental Sciences University of Colorado. "There is
already considerable collaboration between the Navy and civilian scientists and
I see this collaboration growing in the future." The most immediate challenge may not be war — both military
and commercial assets are sparse enough to give all countries elbow room for a
while — but whether militaries can respond to a disaster. Heather Conley,
director of the Europe program at the London-based Center for Strategic and
International Studies, said militaries probably will have to rescue their own
citizens in the Arctic before any
confrontations arise there. "Catastrophic events, like a cruise ship
suddenly sinking or an environmental accident related to the region's oil and
gas exploration, would have a profound impact in the Arctic ,"
she said. "The risk is not militarization; it is the lack of capabilities
while economic development and human activity dramatically increases that is
the real risk."
[Of course this is humanities depressingly familiar response
to a crisis – even one as big as the acknowledge fact that the North Polar ice
cap is melting. Rather than even attempting to address the issue and its causes
what we do instead is to figure out ways to profit from it while at the same
time preventing other countries from doing likewise. In other words we
militarise things while the rest of the world goes to hell in a handcart. Some
days it truly saddens me to be a member of the human species.]
Friday, May 04, 2012
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