We’re in for the Long Haul…..

UK consumer confidence 'improves in August'.

Confidence among UK consumers improved in August, a survey has suggested, but remains below pre-Brexit vote levels. Market research firm GfK said its consumer confidence gauge had recovered to -7 in August, up from -12 in July. Encouraging economic data, low interest rates, falling prices, and high levels of employment have all contributed to a rise in confidence, it said. GfK's survey also indicated a sharp drop in people's propensity to save in August. GfK's Joe Staton said there had been "some recovery" in consumer confidence in August compared with July, when the firm's figures suggested confidence dropped at its sharpest rate for more than 26 years. "We're reporting some recovery in the index this month as consumers settle into the new wait-and-see reality of a post-Brexit, pre-exit UK," he said. The improvement was in keeping with recent data suggesting consumers have remained resilient after the 23 June referendum, even though there have been some indications that they are more reluctant to make big purchases than before the referendum. Last week, a YouGov survey said consumer confidence recorded its highest monthly bounce in August since February 2013, while official data found retail sales increased by 1.4% in July from the previous month. Mr Staton added that it was "remarkable" that GfK's savings survey figures - which are separate from its consumer confidence figures - had collapsed by 16 points in a month. People are "clearly determined to carry on shopping for today rather than saving for tomorrow," he said.

Eurozone inflation remains weak in August.

Eurozone inflation remained weak in August, raising the prospect of further action from the European Central Bank to stimulate the bloc's economy. Inflation in the eurozone was 0.2%, unchanged from July and below analysts' forecasts of a slight increase. The ECB has introduced a number of stimulus measures, but the inflation rate still remains some way off the bank's target of just below 2%. Separate data showed the unemployment rate remained at 10.1% in July. Analysts had been predicting a slight fall in the jobless rate. Eurozone inflation remained unchanged as prices of food, services, and industrial goods rose by less than in July, while the drop in energy prices was not as sharp. In March this year, the ECB stepped up its attempts to stimulate the eurozone's economy, cutting its main interest rate from 0.05% to 0% and its bank deposit rate from minus 0.3% to minus 0.4%. The ECB has stepped up its programme of quantitative easing, and is now buying €80bn worth of bonds a month.

'Glaring deficiencies' in EU debate, Electoral Reform Society says.

The EU referendum campaign was dogged by "glaring democratic deficiencies" with voters turned off by big name politicians and negative campaigning, a report says. The Electoral Reform Society attacked both sides of the referendum campaign, saying people felt "ill-informed" by the "dire" debate. The society said the impact of political leaders had been "minimal". It called for a "root and branch" review of the way referendums are run. Recommendations made by the society include having a public body intervene when "misleading" claims are made by campaigns, reviewing broadcasters' role and publishing a "rule book" to govern conduct by campaigns. It said voters had viewed both sides as increasingly negative, and many "simply did not trust" their key claims. These included Remain saying households would be on overage £4,300 worse off outside the EU and Leave claiming an extra £350m could be spent on the NHS. The government's controversial mail-shot to every household in the UK had "little effect on people's levels of informedness", it said, and towards the end of the campaign nearly half of voters thought politicians were "mostly telling lies". The society said the EU debate was in "stark contrast" to the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence, which it said had featured a "vibrant, well-informed, grassroots conversation that left a lasting legacy of on-going public participation in politics and public life".

Pound jumps as UK manufacturing activity rebounds.

The value of the pound has jumped after a survey indicated the UK's manufacturing sector rebounded sharply in August. The Markit/CIPS purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the sector rose to 53.3 in August from July's figure of 48.3. A figure above 50 indicates expansion. The weakening of the pound following the Brexit vote boosted exports, the survey found. However, it also indicated that the weak pound had pushed up firms' costs. A weakening of the pound makes UK goods cheaper for overseas buyers, but increases the cost of goods imported into the UK. Since the Brexit vote, the pound has fallen in value by more than 10% against both the US dollar and the euro. Following the release of the latest PMI survey, the pound jumped by 1%, more than a cent, against the dollar, to $1.33 before falling back slightly. Against the euro, the pound was 0.6% higher at just under €1.19.
Markit said the month-on-month increase in the PMI level was the joint largest in the survey's 25-year history. "The August PMI data indicate a solid rebound in the performance of the UK manufacturing sector from the steep downturn that followed the EU referendum," said Rob Dobson, senior economist at IHS Markit. "The domestic market showed a marked recovery, especially for consumer products, while the recent depreciation of sterling drove higher inflows of new business from the US, Europe, Scandinavia, Middle East and Asia," he added. Mr Dobson also said that inflation was "raising its ugly head". "Rates of increase in input prices and output charges both hit five-year highs, which manufacturers placed squarely at the door of the cost impact of sterling on import prices," he said.

Andrew Tyrie: Government should set out Brexit aims.

The government must set out in detail what it hopes to achieve from Brexit talks in order to restore public trust in politics, a senior Tory MP says. Andrew Tyrie called for an "early, full and detailed explanation" of the government's negotiating position. The public's "sky-high" expectations about the financial savings from Brexit had to be managed, he said. Meanwhile Boris Johnson has insisted defence and security co-operation would continue despite the UK's exit. Ahead of a meeting of European foreign ministers in Slovakia, the foreign secretary said "we may be leaving the EU, but we are not leaving Europe," adding that the government is "absolutely committed to participation in European foreign policy, defence and security cooperation". Mr Tyrie, the chairman of the Treasury Select Committee, backed Remain in June's poll which resulted in a Leave victory. He is now urging ministers to "cast aside the damaging claim and counter-claim" of the referendum period. In a pamphlet written for the Open Europe think tank, Mr Tyrie said the referendum's "pernicious legacy" was to add to a "deep distrust in politics". "Politicians cannot afford to allow this to get any worse," he said, saying the government had to be frank about the "trade-offs" involved with Brexit - "and the fact that many of the promises made by the Leave side are manifestly unfulfillable".

[As we move slowly – or glacially – towards the exit things are starting to heat up again. Mud is being slung around, along with Brexit timetables, and more dire warnings (and messages of hope) are being broadcast around the bazaars. But we’re nowhere nearer discovering exactly what we’ll get and what we’ll lose when we finally leave in 2019 or 2020. I wonder if anyone actually knows. I suspect not.]

All details above from BBC News website.