Vote? What Vote?

Well, there I was planning to write about my thoughts on tomorrows Brexit vote in Parliament when Teresa May goes and cancels it – or postpones it until next year (probably) hoping that *something* will turn up to either save it or save her. Some luck! But thinking about it this was probably the only thing she could have done to save her Premiership.

She was, in all honesty, in an impossible position. No one really liked her proposal for a deal with the EU. Despite everything she’s been saying it doesn’t really satisfy anyone – Brexiteer or Remainer. Rather than being the best of both worlds compromise it turned out to be the worst of both worlds which pleased exactly no one. Of course, as everyone has known from the beginning, at the heart of things is the border between Ireland/Eire and Northern Ireland. When we were one big happy European family the border did not matter one jot. But now, or at least next March, it matters a great deal. It’s out only physical border with the EU so can’t be open but both Eire and Northern Ireland insist it can’t be closed. Now I know Logic isn’t my strong suit but things usually have an either/or state called open/closed. You can’t have both. You just can’t – no matter what legal or political slant you put on it. You either have an open border which means that Northern Ireland stays in the EU – with the infamous border in the Irish Sea – or you have a closed border with all the usual checks. The compromise failed to please the Northern Irish/DUP or the hard-line Brexiteers on the mainland. Despite much pressure and, no doubt, much backroom dealing tomorrows vote looked like a loser for the PM. The only real question was by how many votes. Of course if the number was as high as some thought her whole political future would be in question – which is pretty much why she pulled out. But kicking the vote down the road or ‘into the long grass’ will, I think, solve exactly nothing. Few, if any, of the hardliners on all sides will change their minds over Christmas but at least it’ll give people around the festive turkey something else to argue about.

When, or if, the vote is finally taken in the New Year the result I suspect will be exactly the same – the PM will lose. But what then? Well, she’s off later in the week to speak to European leaders in the hope that they can save her – despite repeated messages that the deal we have is IT and cannot be renegotiated. Which doesn’t leave very many options especially with around 8-10 weeks after a January vote. If the deal is dead and more negotiations are off the table there seems only two options left: Crash out without a deal or decide to stay. Parliament has said that a no deal option is unacceptable but then so is going against ‘the will of the people’ and staying in the EU. If Parliament can’t decide (or won’t decide) they may consider letting us have another pop at it – either in the 2nd referendum or a General Election fought mainly around the European issue. But can such a thing be arranged and settled in less than 8-10 weeks? I seriously doubt it. Maybe that’s the final plan. Give Parliament the choice between a deal no one wants or chaos that people want even less? That, I think, is a very, very dangerous strategy based on the assumption that people in those circumstances will act rationally – they won’t. They’ll panic, they’ll revolt and they’ll attack. It could all get VERY messy indeed.

Many would agree that the whole Brexit process has been very badly handled from Day One. Politicians have consistently been less than honest with the public keeping the sobering truth from us all – that Brexit was never going to be easy and, no matter what the Brexiteers say, there are downsides to leaving (even if there are upsides too). The possibility that something might have been decided tomorrow is now gone and we’ll need to wait until early next year for some kind of resolution. What that will end up being is, presently, anyone’s guess.