Just Finished Reading: The New Silk Roads – The Present and Future of the World by Peter Frankopan (FP: 2018)

China is not a rising power. No, China has risen. That is the overall conclusion of this fascinating study of China’s global reach and China’s future power in the world. How are we responding in the West? - with division, in-fighting, denial and a delusional sense of self-importance. The West has been dominant across the globe for centuries so it’s understandable that we have come to accept this reality as somehow permanent. However, in the recent decades the centre of power in the world – political, financial and, growing in leaps and bounds, military is shifting to the East. The threat (if it’s characterised that way) is real. But the West seems to be incapable of challenging this truly seismic global shift. Even our response is too little, too late, misses the point entirely or simply does not exist. China in particular (along with the other BRIC countries Brazil, Russia and India) in spending billions of dollars across the world on the new Silk Roads which throughout history have wrapped the world in a web of trade in exotic spices, silk and ideas – plus a few nasty diseases. The new roads consist of port installations, actual roads, power stations, dams, oil refineries and much else besides. As it expands China acquires the vast natural resources it needs to grow at (until recently) a truly astonishing rate – lifting a billion people out of poverty – and acquiring the rights to future resources from Africa, Central Asia and South America. The Chinese are either buying or building port facilities in Europe, Malaysia and even the US. Being unburdened by the need to appeal to an electorate the Chinese can plan 10, 20, 50 or 100 years ahead and actually be able to stick to the plan through thick and thin. No democratic country could hope to do that tied as they are to the election cycle and the demands of big business with shareholders to please and short term profits to provide.

The question that all of this raises is how do we in the West respond? As our relative power with China and the other BRICs decline how do we cope in a multi-polar world were we no longer command the wind (or much else for that matter). If we can no longer throw our weight around with impunity how do we respond to Chinese moves in the Pacific or Indian probes on the Moon or Russian troops in Crimea. What do we do when the first man (or woman) on Mars is from Beijing and not Boston? What do we do when most of the world looks to developments in New Delhi rather than New York? What do we do when the most common second language ceases to be English and becomes Mandarin instead? How do we adapt to this new reality.

The most important thing is, naturally, to recognise that this is happening and to stop seeing ourselves as the natural masters of the universe and the inheritors of all we survey. The West, it seems, has had its time in the sun and now the sun sets and rises in the East. We should see it for what it is, accept it and then do our best to be part of the new narrative rather than a historical side note. This book is not a cry in the wilderness and is most certainly not a cry for help of any kind. It is, above all else, a wake-up call showing us what we have by and large ignored. We may, on many scales, still be a force to be reckoned with, we may still indeed be Number One but not for much longer. How we respond to our new place in the world will determine how happy or how miserable future generations of Westerners will be. Some think that war is inevitable – Thucydides Trap – between the rising power of China and the falling power of the US. I don’t believe this. I have never been a great believer in fate or destiny and I’m not going to start now. Working with the multi-polar nature of the future rather than against it would be in everyone’s interests and could usher in a new global age of prosperity. Or we could fight, waste our dwindling resources and, ultimately, lose and beggar our grandchildren who will curse our names. We need to recognise that the future is probably going to be bright. It’s just won’t be our future. This book will help you see that. Highly recommended for anyone interested in how the future is likely to pan out and who want to know what the BRICs are up to across the globe right now. (R)