Just Finished Reading: July 1914 – Countdown to War by Sean McMeekin (FP: 2013) [405pp] 

When the Austrian archduke was assassinated in June 1914 Europe, rather surprisingly in hindsight, did not exactly hold its breath. There had been a wave of high-profile assassinations across the globe in recent years and few were surprised when another was announced in the headlines of their morning paper. Within days the initial shock had passed and life continued basking under a brilliant summer sky. But behind the scenes events were taking place that, four short weeks later, would produce what became known as the Great War. 

The death of the Archduke and his wife had two immediate results, it removed an irritation within the Empire and it gave the excuse the Austrians were looking for to bring the Serbians to heel and stamp their authority on the turbulent Balkans. Both willing and able to take on Serbia by themselves the Austrians knew they needed ‘top cover’ to head off the possibility of Russian intervention. The Russians had stayed out of the previous Balkan wars but there was always the chance that they’d get involved this time so the Austrians asked their ally, Germany, to cover their back. The Germans agreed. Do what you need to do, they said, but do it quickly. Fully expecting a quick and decisive campaign to essentially smack Serbia on the nose, humiliate her in the eyes of other nations and save face the Germans had issued Austria a blank cheque. Unfortunately they had no idea just how large that cheque would be or exactly when it would be served. To everyone’s surprise, and Germany’s growing irritation, Austria hesitated – first for days and then for days longer. Finally, an ultimatum was devised and delivered with a short deadline for compliance. Once the deadline expired Austria hesitated again until, finally, Austria declared war on Serbia and then... did NOTHING. 

Needless to say, the other European Powers were monitoring the situation closely. Russia was well aware of what the Austrians were doing and had decided, this time, to support Serbia. In preparation they began mobilising (secretly!) so as not to be caught on the hop if Germany decided to mobilise in support of Austria. The Russian mobilisation was supported by France who was at that time allied with Russia and wanted their mobilisation to start in order to neutralise any threat to France from its old enemy Germany. But the Russian mobilisation his two snags: firstly, it didn’t remain secret for long. Rumours had been flying almost since the first day and despite denials Germany started getting restless. The second problem was Poland – then a part of the Russian Empire. In order for Russia to send her troops against Austria its troop trains had to go through Warsaw. This was not too far from Germany’s eastern border and when these troops were reported to Berlin alarm bells rang – loudly! Russia loudly declared that the armies on the move had no intention of threatening German sovereignty but the risk of not responding was too much for Berlin NOT to act. For its own self defence Germany began to mobilise its forces. Seeing what was happening in the east (and against its ally) France had no option to mobilise its forces too. The only Great Power NOT mobilising its forces at this time was Great Britain. 

Britain was in a strange position in 1914. Although it had an ‘understanding’ with France it was not allied in such a way as to pull it inexorably into a continental conflict. The only thing Britain had agreed to – in an almost off-hand fashion – was to cover the French coast from hostile action if the French had agreed to patrol the Mediterranean allowing the British navy to concentrate on its trade routes and the North Sea. The only other European ‘entanglement’ was the agreement – signed by the major European Powers to ensure the geographic integrity of Belgium. As long as Belgium wasn’t violated it was possible that Britain would stay out of any conflict on the Continent. Unfortunately for the French, and indeed the Germans – if not the whole world – the British position was never exactly clear to anyone, including the British themselves. Factions within the British cabinet favoured closer ties with France whilst others equally strongly favoured closer ties with Germany. A firm decision either way by the Prime Minister could conceivably bring down his government and reduce the country to chaos – something they could clearly do without during the ongoing and worsening Irish Troubles. So, Britain (mostly) stayed out of the fray and responded when they must with ambiguous political missives. 

I certainly knew something of the manoeuvrings within the Great Powers between the archduke's assassination and the outbreak of World War 1, but I had no idea of both the complexity of what was happening in the European capitals and the number of mistakes, misunderstandings and much else besides – for example the time it took for telegrams to be sent, decoded, responded to and *understood* when vital decisions needed to be made in a matter of hours, not days! The author takes you into the heart of things and the book honestly reads little a high-quality political thriller with palpable tension in spades despite the fact that we know how things turned out by August. I’d definitely place this as one of the best History books I’ve read this year and most definitely one of the best books on the run-up to World War 1 that I’ve read.  

Being a fan of Alt-history I’m always looking for times where things might have gone a different way. The Great War was not inevitable – nowhere near. The mistakes, misunderstanding and mistiming's in July 1914 – if resolved – might have indeed avoided war. There were other irons in THAT particular fire, for example the Russian desire to control access from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean through the Dardanelles (which would’ve meant war with Turkey and, possibly, Britain) which might have led to a wider European war but we’ll never know. Such musings, along with a very interesting discussion on who exactly was to blame for the war, were covered in the Epilogue. The usual villain of the piece is Germany, but this is a very lazy answer. There was a LOT of blame to go around and Germany certainly deserves some of it, but nowhere near the major part which is shared between Austria and Russia. The German ‘blank cheque’ didn’t help but it wasn’t the cause of the conflict. One of my favourite books of the year and highly recommended – especially if you’ve ever wondered just why the First World War happened. More from this excellent author to come!