Just Finished Reading: 1356 by Bernard Cornwell (FP: 2012)

France, 1356. It’s the start of the new campaign season and Edward, the Black Prince, is marching across the country destroying everything in his path in the hope of forcing the French King to give battle. But memories of Crecy are still raw and the French army refuses to appear. Meanwhile Sir Thomas Hookton is given a special mission by his liege lord – to find a religious relic believed to give its owner power on the battlefield enough to make them invincible. The relic is a sword reputed to have been drawn by St Paul to defend the Messiah himself against the Romans who came for him on that fateful night so long ago. But the sword is also reputed to be cursed by God and a mortal danger to whoever wields it. No matter which story is true the English are determined to have it in their possession if only to deny it from the French. But the French authorities are hot on its trail led by a priest who plans to rise to the greatest of ranks – Pope. As the hunt continues the French King is convinced that now is the time to strike back at the hated English forces destroying the land – a Scottish lord has given him the secret of defeating them in battle and a fatal weakness in their massed archery has been discovered. If the relic can be obtained all three together might be enough to turn the tables and completely negate the feared longbow once and for all. The fate of two nations will be decided outside the walls of Poitiers.

I think it’s becoming redundant to say that a Cornwell book is a cracking read. I’ve now read more than enough of them to know exactly what I’m going to get: a great story, marvellous characters – both male and female, a strong side kick, a kickass female (or two), crackling dialogue, completely evil baddies, and wonderfully recounted (and often chaotic and bloody) battles. This novel had all of those in spades and then some. It even had (albeit briefly) an Irish side-kick for Thomas (read Richard Sharpe with a bow rather than a musket) which made me chuckle quite a lot.

I can see why Cornwell keeps returning to this era in English history. The 100 Years War is a large enough canvas with enough known about it but with enough detail missing that it’s like having a ready-made world minus the finishing touches. Plus the fact that the victories at Crecy, Agincourt and (to a much lesser extent) Poitiers are – or at least used to be – taught in every English classroom in the country as historic examples of our martial prowess (and it doesn’t do any hard at all that they were at the expense of the French who – somewhat surprisingly – a significant number of people in this country have a real dislike for. Needless to say that I enjoyed this a great deal I don’t believe that Cornwell has ever let me down in the entertaining read department and I should think, from experience, that he never will. I’ve probably got at least 5-6 more of his books buried in various piles and I need to dig them out. Definitely more Cornwell, in all his guises, to come. Highly recommended for anyone interested in the period or who just want a cracking tale well told.

Coming Next in Fiction: 10 Books made into Movies – which extra special guests 10 Non-Fiction Books also made into Movies.      

Cartoon Time.

No snow (yet)...........

Definitely NOT plain sailing………

IMF warns of hit to UK economic growth.

The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for UK economic growth next year as it warned that the global recovery remains "weak and precarious". Although the IMF raised its prediction for UK GDP growth this year to 1.8%, the figure for 2017 was cut to 1.1%. Its assumptions are based on "smooth post-Brexit negotiations and a limited increase in economic barriers". The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook predicts "subpar" global growth this year of 3.1%, rising slightly in 2017. Chief economist Maurice Obstfeld said: "Taken as a whole, the world economy has moved sideways. Without determined policy action to support economic activity over the short and longer terms, sub-par growth at recent levels risks perpetuating itself." A fall in US growth this year to 1.6%, down from the previous 2.2% forecast, will be offset by increases in countries including Japan, Germany and Russia and India, the IMF said.

Hard Brexit 'could cost financial sector £38bn'.

The financial industry could lose £38bn if the UK quits the single market, a report commissioned by a group lobbying on behalf of the City has said. The report, commissioned by TheCityUK, also said up to 75,000 jobs could go. The sector is concerned at the prospect of a so-called "hard Brexit", with the UK leaving the EU single market in order to regain control of immigration. On Sunday, the Prime Minister said "we are not leaving the EU only to give up control of immigration again". Her comments helped to trigger a fall in the pound, which dropped to a 31-year low against the dollar on Tuesday. The report, which was written by management consultancy Oliver Wyman, modelled several possible outcomes for the UK financial services industry after Brexit. In one scenario, it said the UK might retain access to the European Economic Area on similar terms, meaning it would be able to continue trading across the bloc without the need for individual country licences.

This would cause less disruption, it said, costing the industry up to 4,000 jobs and £2bn of revenues a year. However, another scenario would see the UK quit the bloc "without any regulatory equivalence". This would cost the industry up to £20bn and 35,000 jobs, it said - although the "knock-on impact" on related business activities could cost a further £18bn and 40,000 jobs. Hector Sants, head of Oliver Wyman and former chief executive of the Financial Services Authority, told the BBC's Today programme: "We are not taking a view on the outcome of the negotiations.  "What we have done here is to create a robust and independent database." He said he hoped the research would create a dialogue between the City and government. "We are confident that these are numbers that people can coalesce around and discuss."

Easyjet warns of £90m currency hit.

Easyjet has warned that the weakened pound will cost it £90m in its current financial year. That is more than double its original estimate made in July, when it warned of a £40m hit. Jet fuel is priced in dollars, so the falling pound has made it more expensive for Easyjet to run its aircraft. Easyjet expects a profit of between $490m and £495m for its financial year, which ends on 30 September. That would be down 28% on the £686m annual profit it made in 2015. It would also be the first fall in annual profits since 2009. Shares closed down by nearly 7% to 933.5p. "The current environment is tough for all airlines, but history shows that at times like this, the strongest airlines become stronger," said Carolyn McCall, Easyjet chief executive. The problem for Easyjet is that although it has been flying passengers in record numbers, those passengers have been enjoying lower ticket prices. Easyjet expects revenue per seat to be down 8.7% for the year and expects ticket prices to fall further in the coming months.

Fraser of Allander report: Brexit could cost 80,000 jobs.

Scotland could lose between 30,000 and 80,000 jobs as a result of Brexit, according to an economic analysis. But the Fraser of Allander Institute said the Scottish economy would be "cushioned" from the likely impact compared with the rest of the UK. A report suggested that Brexit could lead to more migration to Scotland from other parts of the UK. Prime Minister Theresa May has insisted Scotland and the UK could "get a better deal abroad" after leaving the EU. Holyrood's Europe committee convener Joan McAlpine said the outlook was "grim", and warned there could be a "huge constitutional crisis" if Holyrood was not consulted about the "Great Repeal Bill", which severs ties between the EU and the UK. The report from the Fraser of Allander Institute examines a series of potential post-Brexit scenarios. These range from an "optimistic" model similar to Norway's relationship with the EU to a "pessimistic" one based on a so-called "hard Brexit" outside the single market, based on World Trade Organisation rules. The group said the most optimistic outlook would see Scottish GDP drop by 2% within 10 years, causing the loss of 30,000 jobs. The most pessimistic model would see GDP 5% lower within a decade, with 80,000 fewer jobs in the economy.

Hammond urges calm over pound flash crash.

The Chancellor Philip Hammond has responded to the flash crash in sterling saying that market turbulence is to be expected, but the country is fundamentally strong. The pound was pummelled in the currency markets in Friday Asian trading, with traders blaming concerns over Brexit and a flash crash that hit the market. The pound fell 6% to $1.1841, the biggest move since the Brexit vote. The pound later recovered some of those losses but remained volatile. Analysts think a news report could have triggered automated trading systems to sell the pound heavily in a short space of time. Mr Hammond told the BBC: "Some of what happened over night was driven by technical factors, as the Bank of England governor has explained this morning. Markets will go up and down - markets respond to noises. We are going to go through a period of volatility, there will be lots of commentary going on and we can expect to see markets being more turbulent over this period and we should prepare for that. The important thing is to look through the movements of currency markets and short term movements of sentiment.... we go into this period of turbulence fundamentally strong." The pound was down 1.7% against the dollar at $1.2421, in afternoon trading in London, with analysts blaming concern over the UK's negotiations to exit the European Union.

All details above from BBC News website.

[We’re still getting very mixed messages from the Government over what Brexit actually means – apart from Brexit. There appears to be two sides, one going for ‘hard’ Brexit and the other going for a softer cuddlier version. Which to be honest sounds exactly like you’d expect the Conservatives to sound on the issue. Of course ‘hard’ Brexit is the equivalent of slamming on the brakes seconds before going over a cliff whereas ‘soft’ Brexit is more of a slow deceleration before driving off a cliff – so a difference of relaxing into disaster rather than the sudden jolt of it all. My guess is that we’ll go hard because if you’re going to fuck things up there’s no point in half measures.]

...and the start of 17 (and a half) days off work..... so relax......

Just Finished Reading: The Autobiography of Malcolm X with the assistance of Alex Haley (FP: 1965)

This was yet another of those books picked up on impulse in a second hand bookshop somewhere only to languish on my shelves for year after year until (more often than not) decades has passed. Why I picked this particular book all of those years ago I no longer have any idea. I suppose that, just like now, I felt the need to read famous – or in this case infamous – books in order to eventually fulfil my idea of being well-read. It seems like a good an excuse as any.

Well, finally I got around to reading it in good part because the 50th anniversary of the founding of The Black Panthers has not long past us by. I understand that Malcolm X influenced that foundation – although exactly how I’m unsure at present – so it seemed like a good place to start. I did actually start reading this with some trepidation. It is, as you can imagine, rather out of my comfort zone despite being politically radical even today. My knowledge of Black politics, Black activism, the Civil Rights movement and even something as fundamental as Racism is limited to the kind of thing you pick up whilst reading about or watching something else. I knew of the existence of Malcolm X, the Nation of Islam and his radically different stand on Black politics in contrast to the other great icon of Black Rights – Martin Luther King – but almost nothing of the details of his life or his struggle. I know much more now.

I had heard that this book was essentially racist and I can see why people would say that. An obvious example of that is the countless use of the ‘N’ word (which I won’t use) which to be honest took a lot of getting used to. I was several hundred pages in before I stopped winching every time Malcolm X used the word or told tales of others using it. I can also see why people would call Malcolm himself racist as, almost throughout the entirety of the book, he consistently called the white people he came into contact with ‘devils’. Knowing more about his personal and family history I can understand why he came to that opinion. With a dead Father, institutionalised Mother and siblings scattered across the State (all seemingly the result of the actions of whites) I’m not at all surprised he thought that.

Malcolm’s slide into crime (gambling, drugs, and robbery) was told at length and did start to become tedious after a while. Likewise his redemption in prison prompted by his brother who had come across the teachings of a Muslim guru and subsequent conversion into and activities of The Nation of Islam went on far longer than necessary to get his point across. There were interesting snippets along the way, just enough to keep me going forward, but it was honestly a slog at times to turn the next page. Then, quite close to the end, it got interesting. Indeed very interesting. Malcolm X went to Mecca on a pilgrimage and came back a very changed man.

I most definitely wouldn’t call myself any kind of expert on Islam but, throughout most of the book, I thought the Malcolm X’s knowledge of that religion seemed ‘off’ in some way. He relied in most things on the words and interpretation of his guru and his reading of (largely I think) American books around the subject and on Black History. It was only when, as a celebrity, he went on the pilgrimage that he was introduced to actual Islam unmediated by a guru that he began to see the distortions he had taking as ‘gospel’. But the biggest revelation was how he was treated in Arabia and Africa by people of all races (indeed he reflected on how well he was treated ‘even by white people’ in Europe). It was the start of a process of epiphany where he realised that the treatment of the Black population in America was much less of a race issue as a particularly American cultural issue. That was not to say that racism didn’t exist outside America but that it was on a different order of things within the borders of the US. Repeatedly Malcolm X expressed his shock at being treated as just another human being (despite being black) by many people he met on his travels and more shockingly (despite being black) treated with respect by some of the world’s leaders – and not just those who could get something from him and not just those who happened to be born into dark skin. From those days Malcolm X began to change his mind about things, change his ideas, change his plans and to become very, very dangerous to those who could previously label him as a dangerous (but foolhardy and delusional) minority Black leader. With his new found, and developing, maturity and especially with the ear of non-aligned and Third World leaders Malcolm X became, for the first time, potentially destabilising on a truly Global stage. It came as little surprise that, not long after realising that much of what he has previously thought was indeed wrong that he was assassinated in 1965 just before this book was published. I couldn’t help but think what might have happened if he had living and had been allowed to put his maturing ideas in print to allow their spread not only within the US but across the world. I think there’s a distinct possibility that the world of race relations could have been very different indeed.

For a modern white liberal audience this is not an easy book to read. It was written in an arguably much more racist time and it shows. Reading it more than 50 years after the events and thousands of miles away on the other side of the Atlantic with almost no experience of racism to call on I often found it bizarre and surreal. This did not help its readability. But I do think it’s worth the effort if only for the last 100 pages in which Malcolm X examined his own prejudices and found them wanting – so changed his mind! I don’t think many people could do that so completely and so publically and I was honestly impressed by his search for the truth no matter where it led and no matter how much intellectual pain he needed to bare to get him there. Impressive if you can make it to the end.

Cartoon Time.

Moving into the Early Stages (Hold on to your Hats!)

Brexit 'rollercoaster' warning as Hammond axes deficit target.

Chancellor Philip Hammond has said he will prioritise spending on new homes and transport rather than following his predecessor George Osborne's aim to balance the books by 2020. He told the Conservative conference the deficit was still too large and would need to be tackled "in due course". But he said the Brexit vote may cause "turbulence" and business confidence would be on a "bit of a rollercoaster". He said that it was "common sense" to invest to support growth and jobs. In his conference speech, Mr Hammond said his predecessor's deficit reduction policies "were the right ones for that time" but that times had changed since the vote to leave the EU, which he said had caused uncertainty for business. "When times change, we must change with them," he said. "So we will no longer target a surplus at the end of this Parliament. But make no mistake the task of fiscal consolidation must continue. The British people elected us on a promise to restore fiscal discipline. And that is exactly what we are going to do. But we will do it in a pragmatic way that reflects the new circumstances we face."

Pound falls as Theresa May indicates Brexit date.

Sterling has fallen to a three-year low against the euro after Theresa May outlined the timetable for starting Brexit negotiations. It also hit its lowest level against the dollar since the beginning of July. On Sunday, the prime minister said she would trigger Article 50, the clause needed to start the process, by the end of March 2017. That means the UK is likely to leave the EU by mid-2019. In early morning trade, the pound fell by about 1% against the euro to €1.1433, but it had recovered slightly by late evening. However, the pound was still down almost 1% against the dollar. At one point it touched $1.2818, its lowest rate since 6 July when it hit $1.2797. Mrs May's announcement had "unsurprisingly, been bad news for the pound", said Connor Campbell, Spreadex financial analyst. "Sterling has been spooked by May's promise to trigger the dreaded Article 50 by the end of March 2017." However, the currency had been particularly unsettled by the prospect of the UK leaving the EU single market, he said. "The PM, in a move to appease the more rabid members of the Tory party but one that is set to cause revolt from the backbenchers, has signalled that curbing immigration is the top Brexit priority even if it comes into conflict with Britain remaining in the single market," Mr Campbell added. "Combine all this volatility together and the pound has been left at its worst price since the start of July."

Seize 'golden' Brexit opportunity urges Liam Fox.

Britain must seize the "golden opportunity" provided by Brexit and not "fritter it away", Liam Fox has told the Conservative conference. The UK was synonymous with free trade for centuries and must be so again, the international trade secretary said. But he said British firms need to raise their game when it came to selling their goods and services abroad. Mr Fox was criticised last month for suggesting that British companies had become "fat and complacent". Mr Fox, a key Leave campaigner who was brought back into government by Prime Minister Theresa May, is hoping to set up trade agreements after the UK leaves the EU. In his speech to Tory activists, Mr Fox said free trade was "the building block of who we are" as a country and the UK had a "tremendous opportunity to shape the world for the benefit of all" in the wake of the vote to leave the EU. Suggesting that the UK had "outsourced" trade policy when it joined the EU Common Market in 1973, he said Brexit would bring it back "to the heart" of government.

MSPs 'might block' EU Great Repeal Bill.

Scotland's Brexit minister has warned the Scottish Parliament might block Theresa May's "Great Repeal Bill". The prime minister has said the bill would remove the European Communities Act 1972 from the statute book as a prelude to EU withdrawal. But Mike Russell said it would require Scottish Parliament approval, which may be denied if Scotland's interests are not represented in negotiations. Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson said there would be full consultation. But she also stressed that the EU referendum had been a UK-wide vote and that "there is no veto for the Scottish Parliament". Theresa May has promised that a "Great Repeal Bill" in the next Queen's Speech which would remove the 1972 treaty but also enshrine all existing EU law into British law. This would allow the government to seek to keep, amend or cancel any legislation once Brexit has been completed. Under the "Sewel convention" the UK Parliament would not normally legislate with regard to devolved matters in Scotland without the consent of the Scottish Parliament. But nothing in the Scotland Act prevents the UK Parliament from legislating on matters which are within devolved competence.

Theresa May insists UK economy can withstand Brexit turbulence.

Theresa May has said the UK economy remains strong despite Brexit concerns which have hit the pound and seen growth forecasts for 2017 reduced. Sterling has fallen to a 31-year low against the dollar while the IMF cut its GDP forecast for next year to 1.1%. But, as the FTSE 100 rose to an 18-month high, Mrs May said the outlook was "more positive" than many expected. The PM told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that her job was to make the process of EU exit as "smooth as possible". But she also acknowledged it would not be "plain sailing" and there would be "bumps in the road". Mrs May will give her first leader's speech to the Conservative conference on Wednesday against a backdrop of Brexit-induced jitters in foreign exchange markets. The pound has continued to slide since the prime minister said official negotiations on the terms of exit would begin by next March at the latest and indicated that she was seeking restrictions on freedom of movement rules - a move seen as incompatible with remaining a member of the EU's internal market. In its latest economic analysis, the IMF said the UK would grow by 1.8% this year, slightly higher than previously forecast in July, saying consumer spending remained robust and market reaction to the EU vote had been "reassuringly orderly". As it released its report, the FTSE 100 share index rose above 7,100 for the first time since May 2015, close to its record high.

All details above from BBC News website.

[Well, with the Supreme Court deliberating and Christmas just around the corner it’s comparatively quiet on the Brexit front. My boss thinks I’m delusional holding out any hope that it’ll never happen but it hasn’t happened yet and it looks like even the Government who keep saying ‘Brexit means Brexit’ are getting seriously cold feet. Sometimes it feels like they’re getting people ready for the announcement that, all things considered, they’ve decided that the best course for Britain is to stay. If that day comes to pass I will be uncontrollable with laughter. Until that day I’ll keep hope alive!]