Just Finished Reading: How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them by Barbara F Walter (FP: 2022) [226pp] 

War is Hell, but Civil War takes it to a whole other level. Civil War is NASTY. Part of that is the belief – often by both sides – that the conflict is absolutely existential. Either they win or they are destroyed rather than ‘merely’ defeated. If they lose – they're DONE. But why do they happen in the first place? Some places have had multiple civil wars over the generations, whilst others have had few, only one or missed out completely. Why? This is the authors area of expertise. 

Interestingly civil wars have patterns. If you study them long enough and use enough examples from different cultures and across the century's patterns begin to emerge. With each stage passed or with each item checked off a list the odds of a country falling into civil war increases. It’s one way, or one metric, to assess foreign nations – to look at their stability, their reliability as allies or trading partners, their vulnerability to destabilisation by enemies and their future prospects. What the author found, much to her surprise, is that the same process, the same metrics, the same checklist, can be applied to her own country – the US - too.  

About 2/3rds of this often fascinating read looks at civil wars throughout the world, from Spain to Ireland, from post-revolutionary Russia to the breakup of Czechoslovakia after the collapse of the Soviet Union pointing out patterns, showing how the process moves from stage to stage until civil conflict breaks out. Although unique elements naturally exist there is a clear evolution being followed here – which, of course, gives those who want to prevent the descent into war an opportunity to break the chain of events and disrupt the process. This is what the author outlines in the final chapters of the book. 

There has, as we know, been much talk, indeed much heated rhetoric, about the possibility of a 2nd civil war in the US (so much so they made a film about it which is actually rather good). Even though I think that the odds of such a thing – at least in the sense of actual battles between competing armies – is rather low (although not zero) there remains the somewhat higher probability of increased low-intensity conflict between the increasingly polarised sides in the present ‘culture war’. Several significant lines have already been crossed, and it is not inconceivable that the remaining lines between the present political posturing and an exchange of more than words could happen in the months/years ahead. If one side or the other losses hope than change – or mere survival – is not possible without violence to defend their position, well, all bets are off at that point. We’re not there yet – and we’re probably still a long way from that point, but as far as I can tell from this side of the pond the momentum is continuing in that direction. If I was a betting person, which I’m not, I’d put the potential tipping point (all other things being equal) in 2026 with the mid-terms or, more likely I think, with the 2028 election. Either way the next 3-5 years are going to be turbulent to say the least! 

I think the most important aspect of this interesting read was the way it highlighted the dangers – no ‘It can’t Happen Here’ head in the sand between these pages – without either salivating at the prospect or losing hope that such a thing is either inevitable or unavoidable because it isn’t. The progress towards or retreat from civil war can be both observed and opposed to ensure it doesn’t happen here. This book will help you to understand why civil wars happen and also give you some tools and some idea of what to do to avoid them. Definitely recommended in these ‘interesting’ times. 

Happy Birthday: Edward Jenner (17 May 1749 – 26 January 1823) was an English physician and scientist who pioneered the concept of vaccines and created the smallpox vaccine, the world's first vaccine. The terms vaccine and vaccination are derived from Variolae vaccinae ('pustules of the cow'), the term devised by Jenner to denote cowpox. He used it in 1798 in the title of his Inquiry into the Variolae vaccinae known as the Cow Pox, in which he described the protective effect of cowpox against smallpox.

Jenner is often called "the father of immunology", and his work is said to have saved "more lives than any other man". In Jenner's time, smallpox killed around 10% of the global population, with the number as high as 20% in towns and cities where infection spread more easily. In 1821, he was appointed physician to King George IV, and was also made mayor of Berkeley and justice of the peace. He was a member of the Royal Society. In the field of zoology, he was among the first modern scholars to describe the brood parasitism of the cuckoo (Aristotle also noted this behaviour in his History of Animals). In 2002, Jenner was named in the BBC's list of the 100 Greatest Britons.

Just Finished Reading: As kingfishers catch fire by Gerard Manley Hopkins (FP: 1918) [53pp] 

The last time I actually read, and indeed enjoyed reading, poetry was over 50 years ago. I had an old, battered hardback containing a smattering of verse and actually liked some of the works to memorize them. Five decades later I still remember bits and pieces of one by John Donne (a love poem) and ‘The Walrus and the Carpenter’ by Lewis Carrol parts of which at least I knew by heart. So, it's been a while...   

To be honest, poetry really isn’t my ‘thing’ and the reason I read it (although I did skim bits) was that it’s the next booklet in the Penguin Little Black Classics set. One of the reasons I bought this 80-booklet collection was to expand my reading especially beyond my comfort zone. Mission accomplished. Despite its size this volume contained around 30 short poems by the author. According to the minimalist blurb on the back they were considered unpublishable in his lifetime (he died in 1889) and were only published by his friend, and fellow poet, Robert Bridges in 1918. I’m guessing (very much) that they were considered too ‘modern’ or ‘experimental’ at the time and had to wait for the world to catch up. 

The poems largely fell into three categories – nature (which I liked the best although saying ‘liked’ is somewhat of an exaggeration), God (he was a priest after all) and dark depressing rumination. Even though I only read this less than two weeks ago I can barely remember any of them – except I know one was about a copse of Aspens that had been cut down where he normally took his local walks. Somewhat strangely the last 14 pages consisted of extracts from the poet's journals where he recorded the weather and the occurrences on his walks in the country plus a hiking trip with a friend in Switzerland. I thought this was the best and most interesting part of the booklet [grin]. 

So, not for me I think, although others might enjoy. More much more modern poetry to come – soon!   

Just Finished Reading: The Escape Artists – A Band of Daredevil Pilots and the Greatest Prison Breakout of WW1 by Neal Bascomb (FP: 2018) [267pp] 

Most of us will be familiar with the PoW camp breakouts of WW2 popularised by such films as ‘The Great Escape’ but what about the Great War? One thing that I hadn’t realised, until reading this interesting narrative, was the fact that prisoners at that time where not covered by what we now think of as the Geneva Convention. The Third Geneva Convention "relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War" was only adopted in 1929, so any prisoners taken from 1914-1918 would have been covered under the earlier, and much less precise or robust, Hague Conventions of 1899 and 1907. This meant that at least some of the captured could be forced to work for the opposing side and could have their freedoms restricted on top of their actual captivity. Indeed, they could be denied all of the ‘rights’ including their right to life itself with only the possibility of retribution after the war or the fear of reprisals against their own soldiers in captivity to stop them. The running or various camps – in Germany in this case – was, by and large, up to the officer in charge under whatever direction he had been given from his superiors. 

What was also clear, as we were still in the era of Edwardian sensibilities and the (mostly) rigid class system, was that officers and ‘other ranks’ were treated VERY differently within the PoW system. Although not actually in the regulations of the British Army it was considered the duty of an officer to at least try to escape. If an enlisted man did likewise, and was caught, it was entirely possible that he would either be shot or, at the very least, sent somewhere to serve out the rest of his captivity doing hard labour for the enemy. If an officer successfully escaped and was later recaptured, they might very well be punished – usually be a period of solitary confinement and loss of any privileges – but they would, by and large, be physically safe. So, it’s no surprise that any escape, attempted or successful, was undertaken by officers only although assisted by their enlisted men who were essentially ‘escaping’ by proxy. 

The main thrust of the narrative was the escape of around 30 captives – Army and RFC in the main – from the Holzminden camp where the most persistent and hardened escapees from other camps were held. [Side note: Its always amused me the way that the authorities kept the most dangerous people in the same place so that they could plan things together and learn from each other's mistakes and who, eventually, expressed shock and surprised when the best of the best managed to break out of supposedly escape proof facilities]. The place did have a ‘Colditz’ feel to it which helped with visualisation and the author made a valid point when pointing out that the escape ‘philosophy’ often felt familiar (from the arguably much more famous WW2 escapes) because the escapes of WW1 actually informed the escape and evasion training given during WW2. 

I won’t give too much away about the escapes and how they were accomplished (from various camps before Holzminden as well as the place itself) but needless to say they were as various and as excentric as the officers devising them. This is/was one of the aspects of war that I haven’t really thought about or read about previously, but I think I’ll see if I can pick up a bit more on the subject. Although obviously written by a non-historian this was still an interesting and sometimes moving tale of fortitude, grit and determination under often extreme circumstances. Recommended if you’re interested in this aspect of warfare or just want some ideas of how to get out of a secure facility. 

"It's not likely to be a coincidence that the global shift away from democracy has tracked so closely with the advent of the Internet, the introduction of smart phones, and the widespread use of social media."

Barbara F Walter, How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them.