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Saturday, July 16, 2016


I’m sure that things will pick up any day now……

Brexit to hit Eurozone growth, says IMF.

The International Monetary Fund has cuts its economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone in the wake of the UK's vote to leave the European Union. The Eurozone is expected to grow by 1.6% this year and 1.4% in 2017. Before the referendum the IMF had predicted growth of 1.7% for both years. The IMF also revised down its 2018 growth forecast to 1.6% from 1.7%. It said medium-term growth prospects for the 19-member bloc were "mediocre" due to high unemployment and debt. Mahmood Pradhan, deputy director of the IMF's European Department, said the outlook could worsen if drawn-out negotiations between the UK and the EU led to a continuation of recent trends in financial markets - where investors have shunned riskier assets. "If that risk aversion is prolonged, we think the growth impact could be larger and at this point, it is very difficult to tell how long that period lasts," he said in a conference call. The revised 2017 figure was the IMF's "best case" scenario, assuming a deal was struck that allowed the UK to retain its access to the EU's single market, Mr Pradhan said.

UK starts post-Brexit trade talks with India.

Business Secretary Sajid Javid is visiting India for the first trade talks since Britain voted to leave the European Union. Mr Javid will meet Indian government officials in Delhi to discuss how the trading relationship with India might work with the UK outside the European Union. He will also visit the US, China, Japan and South Korea in the coming months. While in India, Mr Javid will also discuss the future of Tata Steel UK. India is the third biggest foreign investor in the UK, according to UK Trade and Investment. Total trade between the two countries was £16.55bn last year, the government body said.

Petition for second EU referendum rejected.

The government has rejected an online petition, signed by more than 4.1 million people, calling for a second EU referendum to be held. An email to those who signed the petition said the prime minister and government had "been clear that this was a once-in-a-generation vote". It said the decision "must be respected", and "we must now prepare for the process to exit the EU". The UK voted to leave the EU by 52% to 48% in the referendum on 23 June. Meanwhile, US President Barack Obama said he believed the UK would quit the European Union despite speculation the vote for Brexit could somehow be reversed. "I think we have to assume that a referendum having been passed with a lot of attention, a lengthy campaign and relatively high participation rates is going to stick," he told a news conference at the end of a Nato summit in Warsaw.

UK trade deficit widens in May.

The UK's trade deficit widened in May after the value of exports fell faster than imports. The figures, which precede the Brexit vote, show the deficit in goods and services widened to £2.26bn, up from a downwardly-revised deficit of £1.95bn in April. The deficit on trade in goods alone was £9.9bn in May, up from £9.4bn in April. The Office for National Statistics said goods exports fell £2.1bn to £23.7bn, while imports fell £1.6bn to £33.5bn. The sharp fall in the value of the pound since the EU referendum vote - it is currently at its lowest level for 31 years against the US dollar - has prompted hopes that it will boost demand for UK goods.

Defence spending may drop after Brexit - parliamentary committee.

Economic changes after the vote to leave the European Union could see the defence budget reduced in real terms, a committee of MPs and peers says. The Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy says security review planning, conducted once or twice a decade, should begin "immediately". And its report criticised ministers' failure to set out contingency plans for Brexit in the last security review. It accused them of "putting political interests ahead of national security". Last year's Strategic Defence and Security Review contained a commitment by the government, made for the rest of this decade, to meet the Nato target of spending 2% of GDP on defence. This implied an annual real-terms increase of 0.5% above inflation in the Ministry of Defence budget, which would result in spending rising from £34.3bn in 2015-16 to £38.1bn in 2019-20.

Savers braced for 'tougher times' as rate cut considered.

Savers have faced "an uphill battle" when searching for a good interest rate and must brace themselves for "tougher times ahead", an analyst has said. Financial information service Moneyfacts said that returns on popular savings schemes have fallen since the start of the year. It said there had been more than 900 cuts to savings rates since January compared with 111 rate increases. There is speculation that the Bank of England will cut rates this week. The Bank's governor, Mark Carney, has already signalled that a cut in the Bank rate from its historic low of 0.5% is a possibility, and financial markets are speculating that the rate will be lowered to 0.25% on Thursday following the latest meeting of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee.

George Osborne pledges a 'more global-facing Britain'.

Chancellor George Osborne has vowed to create a "more outward-looking, global-facing Britain" following the UK vote to leave the European Union. Even closer economic ties between the UK and US are in the "overwhelming interest of both countries", he has written in the Wall Street Journal. Although the UK is leaving the EU, "we are not quitting the world", he said. He is due to travel to New York, Singapore and China for talks with major investors in the coming weeks. The UK is the largest trading partner in Europe for the United States, and in turn the US is the largest single destination for UK exports. UK exports to the US totalled £88bn in 2014 - about 17% of total UK exports - and last year the UK was the US's sixth largest trading partner.

[I do get the feeling, despite the speed of the Conservative internal election and the fact that nothing too bad seems to have happened yet, that this is the calm before the storm. I keep waiting for the ‘other shoe to drop’. It feels like that period between the declaration of war and the first bombs dropping – a Phoney War. Where we are now is, I think, a Phoney Brexit. Our intentions seem to be clear but no one quite knows what’s going to happen next. I’m sure that people are beavering away as I type this to get ‘the best deal for Britain’ but how that will pan out….. well, that’s anyone’s guess at this point.]

All details above from BBC News website.

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