The Tuesday Vote

Well, it looks like Parliament will actually get their vote this time. I think the whole place would go into meltdown if they didn’t. However, it looks like very little has changed before the last vote was cancelled and most political pundits agree that the vote on Tuesday will not go Teresa May’s way. The only real question is by how many votes she will lose by. If it’s by a handful it might just about be recoverable from. If it is, as some expect, by 100 or more it’s pretty much game over for the whole deal. If that number transpires (which honestly I doubt) she’ll need to go ASAP even if Labour don’t table a motion of no confidence which, if the results are that bad, they undoubtedly will. Of course who can replace her and if the Tories really want a leadership contest inside the ensuing chaos is anyone’s guess. My guess for the vote is that she’ll lose by about 40 votes – probably no more than 45. Of course this will be bad but not bad enough for Labour to go nuclear – probably. It all depends who much blood is in the water – to mix my metaphors somewhat!

So, what happens then? I’m assuming that May loses the vote (it’s possible that her fear tactics might persuade enough people for her to just squeeze by but I doubt it) and that either Labour doesn’t table the no confidence motion or they do and she wins in (which she most probably would). Well, without an agreed deal there aren’t many options left considering we’re due to leave the EU, almost no matter what, in about 11 weeks. We could of course simply carry on and crash out on that date with a no-deal Brexit. Most people think this is a bad idea but there are some that view this as a real Brexit and something to be aimed for. We could ‘pause’ Article 50 until we get our act together and then leave in a more orderly manner – though this would require EU approval. The government/parliament could cancel Article 50 and we’d go on as before. With both sides of the debate already throwing toxic missiles at each other I doubt if that would end well either within the Tory party or the general population. As they say – I predict a riot (or three). Likewise if there’s a second referendum to let the people decide – because Parliament can’t – it would get very nasty very quickly and all hell would break lose if Remain won this time. Another possibility is a General Election to decide but with less than 3 months to go this is a very risky option and results, as they say, are far from certain. I would not be surprised by yet another hung parliament with no one in overall control and weeks to go before we crash out. So it’s hardly any kind of solution.

Essentially the Government have made a dog’s breakfast of the whole thing. Because of their poor handling of the vote and the resultant negotiations (if they warrant the word) we are presented with no good options here. Even in the unlikely event that May wins the vote on Tuesday the agreement placed before parliament pleases no one. It is simply the worse of all worlds and the political fallout from the agreement if signed into law will not be pretty. Either way I can see the Tory party ripping itself apart. Their only saving grace is that support for Labour is, seemingly, far from universal. Whatever happens on Tuesday, no vote, lost vote or won vote, the next 3 months are going to be very interesting over here – and that’s before people start panic buying and stocking up on bottled water and baked beans….