Winter is Coming…. And so is an Election.

In an attempt (a vain one I believe) to break through the present political impasse on the issue of Brexit the Tory government has decided to call an election – actually been allowed by the opposition parties to call an election – to try to solve the current clusterfuck. So, for the first time in almost a century we’re having a vote just before Christmas on 12th December. Naturally the Conservatives are hoping/expecting to win back their majority (that Teresa May lost them) in order to push through their Brexit ‘deal’. However, there are a few problems with that…. The Tories presently are pretty much universally despised. About the only thing seemingly keeping them in power is the lack of a credible opposition. Although Corbyn has a solid fan base – especially amongst the young – he’s hated and feared in almost equal measure by a significant proportion of the voting population. Generally speaking the other parties are either too small (presently) to have much of a say in things or they’re single issue parties (like the latest iteration of the Brexit party) or they’re primarily nationalistic like the SNP (Scottish Nationalists) or Plaid Cymru (The Party of Wales).

So, how do I think things will go? I don’t think the Tories will do anywhere as well as they think they will. Things have improved a bit since the Brexit party said they won’t stand against them in areas where they already have the seat but will end up splitting the vote in other areas which will help no one. The Tories might end up winning some seats but I think overall they’ll lose more than they win which means their present majority of zero will start to look pretty good.

I don’t think that Labour will do as badly as some believe. They will lose some seats but they’ll gain some too. I have a feeling that, again overall, they’ll gain more than they lose but only really a handful – probably not much more than 10 or so. I think that the Liberal-Democrats will do well, maybe even better than they expect. Their new leader won’t be the next Prime Minister though – no matter what she says publically. Their present total of around 20 will increase to at least 30 and maybe as much as 40. They may be able to use that to be a power broker – although they’ve said that they won’t – but they won’t have enough seats to even think about forming a coalition never mind a government.

I think that both the SNP and Plaid will do well. They both have the fact that they’re not Conservative or Labour going for them so disgruntled voters might feel safe giving them their vote. Of course an increase in the SNP vote will be a big shot in the arm for any future Independence vote coming up. The Brexit party might get an MP but I seriously doubt it. Although quite a few people will probably vote for them – defectors from the Tories mainly – they won’t get enough anywhere to get over the massive hurdle of first past the post.

Once the dust has settled and almost everyone has declared victory I think that the result will be inconclusive at best. The country is still hugely divided on the whole Brexit issue and will use the election to try and make their point. Remainers will have a hard time voting Tory and Brexiteers will find it impossible to vote Lib-Dem. Each party’s core voters will inevitably vote for them no matter what. But there’s far more going on today. Whether a voter wants to Leave or Remain will have a significant impact on how they vote. Remainer Tories will either not vote or hold their nose and vote Lib-Dem. Likewise Labour voters who don’t like the way things are going in their party will either not vote or will vote Lib-Dem. This is why I think the Liberal-Democrats will do well on the night. There will be LOTS of tactical votes cast on the 12th December including mine. I think it’s all going to be very interesting but I’m confident of one thing and one thing only – that no single party will hold a majority of seats in Parliament which means that the present clusterfuck will be both wider and deeper than before. Inevitably all of the parties will go into huddles to see who they can team up with to form a government. My view is that these intense negotiations will come to nothing and in March or May of next year we’ll be forced to have yet another election which might be fought on a straight Leave/Remain choice. It may even be responsible for the end of Right/Left politics in this country. It’s that big a thing. It is possible that I’m dead wrong (my political forecasting so far has been pretty poor) but I’ll be very surprised if any party actually wins on the 12th. I guess we’ll see!