Just Finished Reading: Stopping the Next Pandemic – How Covid-19 Can Help Us Save Humanity by Debora MacKenzie (FP: 2020/2021) [331pp] 

It’s difficult to argue against the idea that the global pandemic caused by Covid-19 caught the world unprepared – the question is: Should it have caught us by surprise? From what I’ve read so far, including this often-excellent book, the answer is a resounding No. 

Whilst it's true that the last global pandemic to have the impact that Covid did was a century ago – The so-called ‘Spanish Flu’ (putting, of course, the on-going AIDS issue to one side) - it can’t be claimed that our collective memory simply failed us. In recent memory we’ve had SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika and other more exotic viruses that have either become pandemic or very nearly so. So, why the apparent complacency? What’s worse of course is that we know, for certain, that the world will experience a deadly pandemic every year – it’s called The Flu. Although there are vaccines available at least in the prosperous countries [I had mine on Tuesday at a reasonably nearby pharmacy for £20 - from next year (when I hit 65) it’ll be free and at my local doctor's surgery which is a 5-minute walk away] So, again, why did Covid catch SO many countries by surprise? 

Part of that reason lies with China who, as we now know, covered up the original cases, downplayed the severity of the virus and delayed both the news that it was transmissible between people and the details of its genome. These delays, of at least a month if not longer, seriously hampered the global response. But it goes much further than that. It’s now been all but confirmed that what we call Covid-19 originated in bats. These bats, local to Wuhan, were known about and the epidemiological community knew about the chance that transmission to humans was more than possible. Indeed, locals to the bat cave were discovered to have antigens to Covid BEFORE it even became an epidemic in China and probably a year or more before it became a pandemic. So why was nothing done at that point? 

Naturally a big part of the problem – as with anything – is with the time, resources and money required to address known (and unknown!) problems. The bat researchers were operating on a shoestring and didn’t have the money to do much more than swab the bats and note the fact of the viruses (LOTS of them apparently bats being VERY interesting creatures in that regard – more later!) were there and needed someone to look into it. On top of this oversight was the fact that global surveillance of possible viral outbreaks had been drastically cutback just about everywhere. Non-profits and NGOs were left to take up some of the slack from the grossly underfunded WHO. In too many cases we didn’t see it coming for the simple reason that no one was looking. 

Being a global issue you would assume (as I naively did) that there would be global agencies (and not just the WHO) who monitor such things. There is instead a patchwork of agencies – government or otherwise – interested individuals and whistle-blowers who inform the rest of the world what’s happening on their small patch of global real-estate. Clearly that’s not good enough but the hope for an organisation with a truly global reach is probably dead-on-arrival especially with the recent election of Donald Trump. This means, as you are right to expect, more nasty surprises in our collective future. 

If one thing is certain it’s that Covid-19 was far from the last global pandemic we’re going to witness. With out constant ‘exploitation’ of previously untouched natural resources, climate change impacts and ever speedier global transportation the next pandemic is a matter of when rather than if – and they’re getting more frequent. The next one could be a mild one – barely worse than the seasonal flu. Or it could be another 1918 version, or it could be the Black Death. Covid had a fatality rate of around 1-2% globally (although this seemingly innocuous figure hides a LOT of variation and was still 10-20 times as lethal as flu) and we know the disruption and death toll it caused. Now imagine a new virus with a 10-20% fatality rate. How would a just-in-time global economy cope with a seriously compromised transport system and worse? Thinking about it too deeply is frightening – to say the least. Are we prepared for the next one? We’re better prepared, that’s true but are we prepared enough? Only time will tell. 

This is the last of a set of 4 Covid/pandemic related reads starting with a general introduction, the Spanish flu, Covid in the US and now both looking back and forward. It’s been a fascinating reading process and this book was definitely one of the highlights of the bunch. I learnt a LOT from this author (who is honestly a great communicator) not least about the *weirdness* of bat physiology and metabolism. I’m definitely going to be reading more about those creatures as well as staying the HELL away from them whenever possible! If you have a mind anything like me (if so, I do feel sorry for you) you will lap this up and be thrilled, fascinated and appalled. Highly recommended and another highlight of the year.