Baby, it’s COLD outside….

It seems that the only thing we learn from History is that we don’t learn from History. Because it looks like we’re slipping into a new Cold War a little bit more each day. Growing animosity to Russia from the old NATO countries has recently erupted into loud and very public slanging matches the like of which we haven’t really seen for some decades. I’m old enough to remember the original Cold War and although it was a pretty exciting time – nothing adds a particular frisson to the day than the ever present possibility of nuclear annihilation – I didn’t like it that much that I want to go through all that again.

Of course the cynic in me says that, with the recent practical destruction of ISIS and associated groups, the ‘War on Terror’ doesn’t really have the same headline grabbing power it once did. Time to look for a new enemy or, in these days or remakes, reboots and recycling, an old favourite: the Soviet Union AKA Russia. It has the advantage of easy brand recognition, familiar personalities and an older generation who can bore their children with stories of duck and cover and the 4 minute warning. Russia is a ready-made enemy ideally product placed to fill the bad-guy of the month slot so recently vacated by (insert latest Middle-Eastern terrorist group name here). Now the odds of us actually coming to blows with the Russians is vanishingly low – but all the better. We don’t actually have to prepare for conflict we just need to look (and spend) as if we do which will make the West’s hawks and defence contractors very happy indeed. Even more on the upside of history we appear to be moving beyond the rather disturbing 30’s feeling for a more comfortable 50’s one neatly jumping over the 40’s and that whole messy hot war thing.

Then, in the background is the ever present Chinese who seem to have dodged a bit of a bullet on this one. Despite talk of trade war – at least with the US – pretty much everyone thinks that annoying the Chinese is a bad idea. After all almost everything you use, wear, drive, listen to or play games on is either made in China or has components made in China. Oddly I say a baseball on one of my colleagues desks today brought back from the US by a friend. On picking it up I couldn’t help but notice that this icon of American culture was, in fact, made in China. So it’s probably not a good idea to pick a fight with them. I mean, they’ve already bought half the world and rent most of the rest. Personally if I had kids I’d be getting them a head start by teaching them basic Chinese. Sooner or later it’s going to become the 2nd global language of choice.

Anyway, back to the upcoming Cold War (unfortunately not exactly an antidote to Global Warming!) with Russia throwing its weight around trying to look impressive. They do seem to have made significant strides in propaganda and psychological warfare which you can’t help but admire. In that area we have quite a lot of ground to catch up. But I’m sure that similar dirty tricks are not beyond our capabilities. Despite the odd poisoning and TV appearance denying particular activities (when they even bother denying things that is) most of this new Cold War will likely to be fought on the Internet and in Social Media. Again Russia has significant experience in doing this but it’s only a matter of time before their own techniques are used against them and (as always) everyone loses. If things track as they look to be doing the next 10-20 years are going to be one hell of a surreal ride. To the Cold War history books – STAT!